Has the prevalence of overweight, obesity and central obesity levelled off in the United States? Trends, patterns, disparities, and future projections for the obesity epidemic
Has the prevalence of overweight, obesity and central obesity levelled off in the United States? Trends, patterns, disparities, and future projections for the obesity epidemic
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DOI：
10.1093/ije/dyz273
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发表时间：
2020-06-01
影响因子：
7.7
通讯作者：
Cheskin, Lawrence J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wang, Youfa;Beydoun, May A.;Cheskin, Lawrence J.
背景资料：肥胖症（OB）是一个严重的流行病，在美国。方法：我们研究OB模式和时间趋势的社会经济和地理参数，并预测未来的情况。使用了大型国家数据库。超重（OW）、肥胖（OB）和重度肥胖（OAD）的定义采用体重指数临界点/体重指数;中心性肥胖（CO）、成年人腰围临界点和青年人腰围：身高比临界点。结果：自1999年以来，肥胖患病率呈持续上升趋势，不同地区、不同人群间存在较大差异。在成年人中，男性的OB（33.7%）和OW（71.6%）在2009-2012年趋于稳定，在2015-2016年分别恢复到38.0%和74.7%。自1999年以来，女性的OB/OW患病率不断增加，2015-2016年达到41.5%（OB）和68.9%（OW）。在1999年至2012年每年增长0.2%之后，2013-2016年趋于平稳（男子：5.5-5.6%;妇女：9.7-9.5%）。非西班牙裔黑人在女性OB/OBI和男性OBI中的患病率最高。2015-2016年，男孩的肥胖患病率持续上升至20.6%，女孩的肥胖患病率持续上升至7.5%。到2030年，大多数美国人将是OB/OW，近50%的成年人将是OB，而6-11岁的儿童将有33%，12-19岁的青少年将有50%。自1999年以来，慢性阻塞性肺病的发病率稳步上升，预计到2030年，男子将达到55.6%，妇女将达到80.0%，女孩将达到47.6%，男孩将达到38.9%。成人肥胖患病率存在地区差异（2011-2016年）和种族差异;南部（32.0%）和中西部（31.4%）的患病率最高。各群体和各地理区域之间仍然存在巨大差距。需要采取有效、可持续、适合文化的干预措施。
Background: Obesity (OB) is a serious epidemic in the United States.Methods: We examined OB patterns and time trends across socio-economic and geographic parameters and projected the future situation. Large national databases were used. Overweight (OW), OB and severe obesity (SOB) were defined using body mass index cut-points/percentiles; central obesity (CO), waist circumference cut-point in adults and waist:height ratio cutoff in youth. Various meta-regression analysis models were fit for projection analyses.Results: OB prevalence had consistently risen since 1999 and considerable differences existed across groups and regions. Among adults, men's OB (33.7%) and OW (71.6%) levelled off in 2009-2012, resuming the increase to 38.0 and 74.7% in 2015-2016, respectively. Women showed an uninterrupted increase in OB/OW prevalence since 1999, reaching 41.5% (OB) and 68.9% (OW) in 2015-2016. SOB levelled off in 2013-2016 (men: 5.5-5.6%; women: 9.7-9.5%), after annual increases of 0.2% between 1999 and 2012. Non-Hispanic Blacks had the highest prevalence in women's OB/SOB and men's SOB. OB prevalence in boys rose continuously to 20.6% and SOB to 7.5% in 2015-2016, but not in girls. By 2030, most Americans will be OB/OW and nearly 50% of adults OB, whereas similar to 33% of children aged 6-11 and similar to 50% of adolescents aged 12-19 will be OB/OW. Since 1999, CO has risen steadily, and by 2030 is projected to reach 55.6% in men, 80.0% in women, 47.6% among girls and 38.9% among boys. Regional differences exist in adult OB prevalence (2011-2016) and across ethnicities; South (32.0%) and Midwest (31.4%) had the highest rates.Conclusions: US obesity prevalence has been rising, despite a temporary pause in 2009-2012. Wide disparities across groups and geographical regions persist. Effective, sustainable, culturally-tailored interventions are needed.