Drought risk assessment of China’s mid-season paddy
Drought risk assessment of China’s mid-season paddy
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DOI：
10.1007/s13753-011-0009-4
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发表时间：
2011-12
影响因子：
4
通讯作者：
Yongdeng Lei;Jing'ai Wang;L. Luo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Yongdeng Lei;Jing'ai Wang;L. Luo
中国是世界上人口最多的国家，农业部门庞大且至关重要。百分之六十五的中国人口以稻米为生。然而，干旱灾害频繁困扰着中国农村人口，威胁着中国的粮食安全。因此，对我国水稻干旱风险进行评估具有重要意义。建立了中稻干旱风险定量评估模型和区域脆弱性曲线，对中稻干旱风险进行了评估，编制了中稻干旱风险图。干旱灾害风险等级结果表明，东北地区风险最高，西北地区次之，华北地区最低，华南地区最低，呈现由北向南递减的趋势。东北中稻区的平均风险指数最高（0.58-0.71），其次是内蒙古、新疆等西北省份（0.5-0.6），河北、山东等华北省份的风险指数在0.3-0.5之间，南方省份的风险水平相对较低。本文介绍了对中稻高干旱风险区在哪里以及风险有多高进行科学调查的初步结果。研究结果为我国水稻干旱风险治理提供了区域性依据。
China has the world’s largest population and a large and critically important agricultural sector. Sixty-five percent of the Chinese population lives on paddy rice. However, drought disasters frequently afflict China’s rural population and threate n its food security. It is therefore of paramount importance to assess the drought risk of paddy in China. We establish a quantitative risk assessment model for the drought risk of mid-season paddy and regional-specific vulnerability curves, evaluate the drought risk of mid-season paddy, and compile a series of risk maps. The drought disaster risk rating results indicate that risk is highest in Northeast China, followed by Northwest China, North China, and South China, showing a decreasing trend from north to south. The mid-season paddy area of Northeast China has the highest mean risk index (0.58–0.71), followed by northwestern provinces such as Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang (0.5–0.6), while risk indices in provinces of North China such as Hebei and Shandong range from 0.3–0.5, and the southern provinces show a relatively low level of risk. This article presents the preliminary results of a scientific inquiry on where the high drought risk areas of mid-season paddy are and how high the risk is. These results provide a regional-specific basis for drought risk governance of paddy in China.