Evolution of the Chinese spring festival travel network during the COVID-19 early outbreak
Evolution of the Chinese spring festival travel network during the COVID-19 early outbreak
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DOI：
10.1080/19427867.2021.1896065
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发表时间：
2021-03
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Rongxiang Su;K. Goulias
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Rongxiang Su;K. Goulias
摘要我们调查了2019冠状病毒病早期（2020年1月17日至2月23日）中国春节旅行网络的演变，并探讨了2019冠状病毒病对城际旅行网络演变的影响。我们发现，在武汉封锁（1月23日）之后，中国一个城市与其他27.9个城市的联系被切断。将各城市的度中心度与累计确诊病例数进行关联，发现有确诊病例的城市比无确诊病例的城市多87.63度，多97.13度。我们还发现，1月24日（武汉封城后一天）的累计病例对深度的影响最大，即每增加1例确诊病例对应于深度下降0.159。在输出度方面，2月2日的影响最大，即每增加1例确诊病例对应输出度下降0.022。
ABSTRACT We investigate the evolution of the Chinese Spring Festival travel network during COVID-19 early outbreak (Jan 17 to Feb 23, 2020) in China and explore the impacts of COVID-19 on the evolution of the intercity travel network. We find that the connections of a China city with other 27.9 cities were cut off after the Wuhan lockdown (Jan 23). Correlating the degree centrality of each city and the cumulative numbers of COVID-19 confirmed cases, we find that cities with confirmed cases have 87.63 more indegrees and 97.13 more outdegrees than cities without confirmed cases. We also find that Jan 24 (one day after the Wuhan lockdown) has the highest effect of cumulative cases on indegree that is one additional confirmed case corresponds to 0.159 decreases in indegree. In terms of outdegree, Feb 2 has the highest effect that is one additional confirmed case corresponds to 0.022 decreases in outdegree.