Simulated resilience of tropical rainforests to CO2-induced climate change
Simulated resilience of tropical rainforests to CO2-induced climate change
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DOI：
10.1038/ngeo1741
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发表时间：
2013-04-01
影响因子：
18.3
通讯作者：
Cox, Peter M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Huntingford, Chris;Zelazowski, Przemyslaw;Cox, Peter M.
热带森林的碳储量如何因气候和大气组成的变化而改变尚不确定。然而，评估热带森林未来潜在的碳损失对于评估减少毁林和退化所致排放量方案的效力十分重要。一方面，在对植被过程有不同表述的模型中，不稳定性与不同的碳储存响应有关（1-3），另一方面，不稳定性与温度和降水模式预测变化的差异有关（4、5）。在这里，我们提出了一个系统的探索这些来源的不确定性，沿着的不确定性所产生的不同排放情景的所有三个主要热带森林地区：美洲（即亚马逊河流域和中美洲），非洲和亚洲。使用22个气候模型和MOSES-TRIFFID陆面方案进行模拟，我们发现只有一（5）个模拟中预测到21世纪末热带森林的生物量将减少，而且仅限于美洲。当与植物生理过程的替代模型（1，2）相比，我们发现，最大的不确定性与植物的生理反应，然后与未来的排放情景。气候预测差异的不确定性要小得多。尽管存在相当大的不确定性，我们得出结论，有证据表明，所有三个地区的森林恢复力。
How tropical forest carbon stocks might alter in response to changes in climate and atmospheric composition is uncertain. However, assessing potential future carbon loss from tropical forests is important for evaluating the efficacy of programmes for reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation. Uncertainties are associated with different carbon stock responses in models with different representations of vegetation processes on the one hand(1-3), and differences in projected changes in temperature and precipitation patterns on the other hand(4,5). Here we present a systematic exploration of these sources of uncertainty, along with uncertainty arising from different emissions scenarios for all three main tropical forest regions: the Americas (that is, Amazonia and Central America), Africa and Asia. Using simulations with 22 climate models and the MOSES-TRIFFID land surface scheme, we find that only in one(5) of the simulations are tropical forests projected to lose biomass by the end of the twenty-first century-and then only for the Americas. When comparing with alternative models of plant physiological processes(1,2), we find that the largest uncertainties are associated with plant physiological responses, and then with future emissions scenarios. Uncertainties from differences in the climate projections are significantly smaller. Despite the considerable uncertainties, we conclude that there is evidence of forest resilience for all three regions.