MULTIPLE ATTRACTORS IN THE RESPONSE TO A VACCINATION PROGRAM
MULTIPLE ATTRACTORS IN THE RESPONSE TO A VACCINATION PROGRAM
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DOI：
10.1016/0040-5809(90)90003-e
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发表时间：
1990-08-01
影响因子：
1.4
通讯作者：
ARON, JL
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
ARON, JL
虽然众所周知，多个吸引子可能共存于SEIR（易感/暴露/感染/恢复）流行病模型的生命动力学和季节性强迫振荡的传播，多个吸引子的流行病学意义一直是一个有争议的话题。我表明，吸引子的共存是相关的，在使用该模型的研究动态引入疫苗接种计划到一个稳定的流行病周期。对程序的响应可以包括多于一个吸引子。相对于原始流行病周期引入程序的确切时间对于确定哪种吸引子出现在响应中至关重要。这个简单的模型的分析表明，在疫苗接种反应中的多个吸引子的作用，应在更现实的流行病学模型中进行检查。
Though it is well known that multiple attractors may co-exist in the SEIR (susceptible/exposed/infective/recovered) epidemic model with vital dynamics and seasonally forced oscillations in transmission, the epidemiological significance of multiple attractors has been a subject of debate. I show that the co-existence of attractors is relevant in using the model to the study the dynamics of the introduction of a vaccination program into a stable epidemic cycle. Responses to the program may include more than one attractor. The exact timing of the introduction of the program relative to the the original epidemic cycle is critical in determining which attractor appears in the response. Analysis of this simple model suggests that the role of multiple attractors in the response to vaccination should be examined in more realistic epidemiological models.