Climate Dynamics: Why Does Climate Vary?
Climate Dynamics: Why Does Climate Vary?
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DOI：
10.1029/gm189
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发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
De-Zheng Sun;F. Bryan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
De-Zheng Sun;F. Bryan
As an old saying goes, we are living in an interesting age. For the first time in the Earth’s history, the most intelligent dwellers of this planet are perturbing the global energy balance of the climate system to a degree that sustainability of the planet may be threatened. Global warming has become a household phrase and entered the realm of economical and political debate. Consequently, the scientific community is increasingly asked to provide in a timely manner, to the public and policy makers, explanations for changes observed in the state of the climate system, and timely predictions of how it will evolve in the coming decades and centuries. With anthropogenic forcing being traditionally introduced to the public as a perturbation to the radiation balance of the climate system, the tendency to underestimate the complexity of dynamics can be high. Indeed, concepts such as bifurcations, scale interactions, reemergence of ocean temperature anomalies, and oceans’ role in integrating stochastic forcing of weather events, have not become as popularly known as the greenhouse effect. But natural variability arising from the complexity of the internal dynamics of the climate system has been, and will remain, in a dominant driver of variability. Dynamics may also make the natural variability and anthropogenic effect more intermingled than the linear fashion that we have often assumed to be.
