Assessment of the cost of climate change impacts on critical infrastructure in the circumpolar Arctic
Assessment of the cost of climate change impacts on critical infrastructure in the circumpolar Arctic
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DOI：
10.1080/1088937x.2019.1686082
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发表时间：
2019-10
期刊：
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Luis Suter;D. Streletskiy;N. Shiklomanov
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Luis Suter;D. Streletskiy;N. Shiklomanov
摘要 北极正在经历明显的气候和环境变化。这些变化对基础设施构成风险，影响偏远地区的可达性和发展，并给地方和区域预算增加额外压力。这项研究估计了北极地区受气候变化影响的固定基础设施的成本，特别是永久冻土融化的影响。岩土模型受到来自六个 CMIP5 模型的气候数据的强制，用于评估 RCP8.5 情景下 2050-2059 年和 2006-2015 年几十年间永久冻土岩土特征的变化。特定国家的基础设施成本用于估算受影响基础设施的价值。结果显示，环极地永久冻土地区的基础设施生命周期更换成本增加了 27%。此外，超过14%的固定基础设施资产因特定环境压力因素的变化而面临损坏风险，例如永久冻土承载力丧失和地冰融化导致的融雪沉降。加拿大北部和西西伯利亚地区预计将受到特别影响，可能需要超过年度 GRP 1% 的额外年度支出，以支持未来的现有基础设施。
ABSTRACT The Arctic is experiencing pronounced climatic and environmental changes. These changes pose a risk to infrastructure, impacting the accessibility and development of remote locations and adding additional pressures on local and regional budgets. This study estimates the costs of fixed infrastructure affected by climate change impacts in the Arctic region, specifically on the impacts of permafrost thaw. Geotechnical models are forced by climate data from six CMIP5 models and used to evaluate changes in permafrost geotechnical characteristics between the decades of 2050–2059 and 2006–2015 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Country-specific infrastructure costs are used to estimate the value of infrastructure affected. The results show a 27% increase in infrastructure lifecycle replacement costs across the circumpolar permafrost regions. In addition, more than 14% of total fixed infrastructure assets are at risk of damages due to changes in specific environmental stressors, such as loss of permafrost bearing capacity and thaw subsidence due to ground ice melt. Regions of Northern Canada and Western Siberia are projected to be particularly affected and may require additional annual spending in the excess of 1% of annual GRP to support existing infrastructure into the future.