Moral Hazard in Health Insurance: How Important is Forward Looking Behavior?
Moral Hazard in Health Insurance: How Important is Forward Looking Behavior?
复制标题
健康保险中的道德风险：前瞻性行为有多重要？
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
M. Cullen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Aviva Aron;L. Einav;Amy N. Finkelstein;M. Cullen
我们调查个人是否表现出前瞻性的行为，在他们的反应，非线性定价常见的健康保险合同。我们的实证策略利用了这样一个事实，即在日历年晚些时候加入雇主提供的医疗保险计划的员工面临相同的初始（“现货”）医疗价格，但比在年初加入同一计划的员工更高的预期年底（“未来”）价格。我们的研究结果拒绝了完全短视行为的无效性;医疗利用似乎对未来价格做出了反应，医疗利用对未来价格的弹性在统计学上显著为-0.4 ~-0.6。为了量化前瞻性行为的程度，我们开发了一个程式化的个人行为动态模型，并使用我们估计的行为反应和兰德健康保险实验的额外数据对其进行校准。我们的校准表明，弹性估计可能会大大小于完全前瞻性行为所暗示的，但它是足够高的经济上的显着影响年度医疗利用的非线性健康保险合同的响应。总体而言，我们的研究结果指出，在分析医疗保险对医疗利用的影响时，考虑动态激励的经验重要性。
We investigate whether individuals exhibit forward looking behavior in their response to the non-linear pricing common in health insurance contracts. Our empirical strategy exploits the fact that employees who join an employer-provided health insurance plan later in the calendar year face the same initial ("spot") price of medical care but a higher expected end-of-year ("future") price than employees who join the same plan earlier in the year. Our results reject the null of completely myopic behavior; medical utilization appears to respond to the future price, with a statistically significant elasticity of medical utilization with respect to the future price of -0.4 to -0.6. To try to quantify the extent of forward looking behavior, we develop a stylized dynamic model of individual behavior and calibrate it using our estimated behavioral response and additional data from the RAND Health Insurance Experiment. Our calibration suggests that the elasticity estimate may be substantially smaller than the one implied by fully forward-looking behavior, yet it is sufficiently high to have an economically significant effect on the response of annual medical utilization to a non-linear health insurance contract. Overall, our results point to the empirical importance of accounting for dynamic incentives in analyses of the impact of health insurance on medical utilization.
用健康保险的非线性预算集模型估计风险保护和道德风险之间的权衡。
影响因子：
1.5
作者：
Kowalski,AmandaE
通讯作者：
Kowalski,AmandaE
DOI：
10.1093/qje/qjr013
发表时间：
2011-05-01
期刊：
The quarterly journal of economics
影响因子：
--
作者：
Chetty R;Friedman JN;Olsen T;Pistaferri L
通讯作者：
Pistaferri L