KENYA ENTERS THE FERTILITY TRANSITION
KENYA ENTERS THE FERTILITY TRANSITION
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DOI：
10.1080/0032472031000146446
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发表时间：
1992-11-01
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
ROBINSON, WC
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
ROBINSON, WC
在肯尼亚，避孕普及率正在上升，生育率正在下降，这些变化发生的速度表明，肯尼亚已经过了一个转折点，进入了一个过渡期。 在本文中，作者探讨了这些最近的趋势，从1989年肯尼亚人口健康调查和其他几个小规模的调查和定性研究的数据。 在改变避孕生育行为的基础上，对理想家庭规模的态度似乎发生了重大转变，在本文的第二部分中，考虑了以前几乎普遍悲观的关于肯尼亚生育率的预测，现在看来是错误的。 由于肯尼亚已经成为撒哈拉以南非洲国家的领头羊，这些早期的预测被重新审视，以期从错误中吸取教训。 得出的结论是，不正确的理论范式和假设导致了错误的结果，而不是不正确的数据，或分析。
Contraceptive prevalence is rising and fertility is falling in Kenya, and the speed with which these changes are occurring suggests that Kenya has passed a turning point and entered a transition. In this paper the author explores these recent trends with data from the 1989 Kenya Demographic Health Survey and several other small-scale surveys and qualitative research studies. Underlying the changed contraceptive - fertility behaviour, there appears to have been a major shift in attitudes regarding desired family size.In the second part of the paper the earlier almost universally pessimistic predictions regarding fertility in Kenya, which now appear to have been wrong are considered. Since Kenya has emerged as a bellwether among sub-saharan African states, these earlier predictions are re-examined with a view to learning from their mistakes. It is concluded that incorrect theoretical paradigms and assumptions led to the erroneous results, rather more than incorrect data, or analysis.