Vulcanian explosion cycles: Patterns and predictability
Vulcanian explosion cycles: Patterns and predictability
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瓦肯爆炸周期：模式和可预测性
DOI：
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发表时间：
2007
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
D. Pyle
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Watt;T. Mather;D. Pyle
在许多火山中，反复剧烈的火山爆发序列是常见的危险。对这些序列的统计分析构成了预测模型的基础，并揭示了潜在的爆炸过程。然而，没有一个单一的统计模型来描述火山系的爆发间休息间隔。蒙特塞拉特的Soufriere Hills最好用逻辑-逻辑模型来描述，而日本的Sakurajima则显示了随着活动的加剧，从逻辑-逻辑模型向威布尔模型的过渡。印度尼西亚的喀拉喀托火山在不同的时间尺度上表现出两种失效模式，都用威布尔分布来描述。在希腊圣托里尼岛的卡梅尼群岛，模型拟合参数在喷发周期之间变化。岩浆上升速率和加压速率可能是确定火山系休止层段统计分布的最重要控制因素。
Repetitive and violent Vulcanian explosion sequences are common hazards at many volcanoes. Statistical analyses of such sequences form the basis of forecasting models and reveal underlying explosive processes. However, no single statistical model describes interexplosion repose intervals in Vulcanian systems. Soufriere Hills, Montserrat, is best described by a log-logistic model, while Sakurajima, Japan, shows a transition from a log-logistic to a Weibull model as activity intensifies. Anak Krakatau, Indonesia, displays two failure modes on different time scales, both described by Weibull distributions. At the Kameni Islands, Santorini, Greece, model-fitting parameters vary between eruption cycles. Rates of magma rise and pressurization may be the most important controls in determining the statistical distribution of repose intervals in Vulcanian systems.