Marked point process hotspot maps for homicide and gun crime prediction in Chicago
Marked point process hotspot maps for homicide and gun crime prediction in Chicago
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.01.004
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发表时间：
2014-07-01
影响因子：
7.9
通讯作者：
Mohler, George
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Mohler, George
犯罪热点地图是显示空间犯罪模式和配置警力资源的一种广泛使用和成功的方法。然而，热点地图通常只使用一种犯罪类型在单个时间范围内创建。在利用几周犯罪数据的短期热点地图的情况下，风险估计受到很大的变化，特别是对于凶杀案等低频率犯罪。利用数年数据的长期热点地图未能考虑到近重复效应和新兴热点趋势。在本文中，我们展示了如何扩展犯罪的点过程模型，以包括领先指标犯罪类型，同时通过标记点过程方法捕捉风险的短期和长期模式。几年的数据和许多不同的犯罪类型被系统地结合在一起，以产生准确的热点地图，可用于预测与枪支有关的犯罪的治安。我们将这种方法应用于一个大型的开源数据集，该数据集已由芝加哥警察局在网上向公众开放。(C)2014年国际预报员协会。爱思唯尔出版，版权所有。
Crime hotspot maps are a widely used and successful method of displaying spatial crime patterns and allocating police resources. However, hotspot maps are often created over a single timescale using only one crime type. In the case of short-term hotspot maps that utilize several weeks of crime data, risk estimates suffer from a high variance, especially for low frequency crimes such as homicide. Long-term hotspot maps that utilize several years of data fail to take into account near-repeat effects and emerging hotspot trends. In this paper we show how point process models of crime can be extended to include leading indicator crime types, while capturing both short-term and long-term patterns of risk, through a marked point process approach. Several years of data and many different crime types are systematically combined to yield accurate hotspot maps that can be used for the purpose of predictive policing of gun-related crime. We apply the methodology to a large, open source data set which has been made available to the general public online by the Chicago Police Department. (C) 2014 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.