An analysis of influenza outbreaks in institutions and enclosed societies
An analysis of influenza outbreaks in institutions and enclosed societies
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DOI：
10.1017/s0950268813000733
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发表时间：
2014-01-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Leach, S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Finnie, T. J. R.;Copley, V. R.;Leach, S.
本文考虑了封闭社会中流感暴发的报告发病率。这些社团与更广泛的社区隔绝，成员之间有更多接触的机会，这将有助于疾病的传播。而特定类型的社会(监狱、养老院、学校、军营等)在调整后的攻击比率模型中，一个人在社会中的职业不是一个重要因素。特别是，儿童和军事人员比其他职业类型(工作人员、囚犯等)遭受更大的攻击比率。最终发病率没有时间趋势，除了1918年，大流行年份也没有显示异常的发病率。我们还观察到，随着社区规模的增加，攻击率经历了急剧的非线性下降。这一统计分析提请注意这些社会的组织、其规模和其中个人的职业如何影响最终的攻击率。
This paper considers the reported attack ratio arising from outbreaks of influenza in enclosed societies. These societies are isolated from the wider community and have greater opportunities for contact between members which would aid the spread of disease. While the particular kind of society (prison, care home, school, barracks, etc.) was not a significant factor in an adjusted model of attack ratio, a person's occupation within the society was. In particular, children and military personnel suffer a greater attack ratio than other occupational types (staff, prisoners, etc.). There was no temporal trend in final attack ratio nor, with the exception of 1918, do pandemic years show abnormal attack ratios. We also observed that as community size increases, the attack ratio undergoes steep nonlinear decline. This statistical analysis draws attention to how the organization of such societies, their size and the occupations of individuals within them affect the final attack ratio.