Variability in marsh migration potential determined by topographic rather than anthropogenic constraints in the Chesapeake Bay region
Variability in marsh migration potential determined by topographic rather than anthropogenic constraints in the Chesapeake Bay region
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DOI：
10.1002/lol2.10262
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发表时间：
2022-05
影响因子：
7.8
通讯作者：
G. D. Molino;J. Carr;N. Ganju;M. Kirwan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
G. D. Molino;J. Carr;N. Ganju;M. Kirwan
海平面上升和咸水入侵正在推动沿海生态系统的内陆转移。在这里，我们对未来SLR情景下美国切萨皮克湾周围的81个流域的土地转化进行了高分辨率(1米)预测，切萨皮克湾是SLR加速和咸水入侵的热点。我们发现，到2100年可能会创造1050-3748平方公里的沼泽，这主要是以森林湿地为代价的。预测的沼泽迁移量超过当前潮汐沼泽总面积，比历史观测值大约4倍。湿地迁移区的人为土地利用集中在少数几个流域内，对沼泽恢复能力的计算指标影响最小。尽管区域沼泽区得到维护，但脆弱流域内的当地生态系统服务替代仍然不确定。然而，我们的工作表明，地形而不是土地利用推动了区域湿地脆弱性的空间变异性，需要农村土地转换来补偿全球高度发达海岸的广泛面积损失。
Sea level rise (SLR) and saltwater intrusion are driving inland shifts in coastal ecosystems. Here, we make high‐resolution (1 m) predictions of land conversion under future SLR scenarios in 81 watersheds surrounding Chesapeake Bay, United States, a hotspot for accelerated SLR and saltwater intrusion. We find that 1050–3748 km2 of marsh could be created by 2100, largely at the expense of forested wetlands. Predicted marsh migration exceeds total current tidal marsh area and is ~ 4× greater than historical observations. Anthropogenic land use in marsh migration areas is concentrated within a few watersheds and minimally impacts calculated metrics of marsh resilience. Despite regional marsh area maintenance, local ecosystem service replacement within vulnerable watersheds remains uncertain. However, our work suggests that topography rather than land use drives spatial variability in wetland vulnerability regionally, and that rural land conversion is needed to compensate for extensive areal losses on heavily developed coasts globally.