The return period of wind storms over Europe
The return period of wind storms over Europe
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DOI：
10.1002/joc.1794
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发表时间：
2009-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Appenzeller, Christof
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Della-Marta, Paul M.;Mathis, Hubert;Appenzeller, Christof
准确评估极端风速的大小和频率对于许多安全、工程和再保险应用至关重要。我们利用欧洲中期预报中心ERA-40再分析数据的空间和时间一致性来确定北大西洋东部和欧洲上空与风暴相关的极端风的频率。两个参数进行了研究：10米阵风和10米风速。分析遵循两个不同的观点：在空间分布的视图中，风暴统计数据在每个网格点单独确定。在一个完整的，更广义的观点，风暴统计数据是由极端风指数（EWI），总结风暴的大小和空间范围。我们采用经典的峰值过阈值（POT）极值分析技术（伊娃）的EWI和网格点风数据。作为参考，根据现有文献编制了200个最突出的欧洲风暴目录。基于EWI的目录风暴重现期（RP）估计范围从大约0.1到300年，而基于网格点的RP估计范围从0.1到500+年。对风速绝对值敏感的EWI将1989/1990和1999/2000年冬季延长季节的风暴RP与分布式方法得出的RP相似。与使用整个域得出的RP相比，仅使用陆地网格点计算时，从EWI得出的RP估计值通常较高。EWI和基于网格点的RP中的不确定关系都显示出对所使用的风参数的依赖性大于对与IZPs小于10年的伊娃相关的不确定性的依赖性，而对于大于10年的RP，不同数据集的影响较低。EWI共享高达约50%的局部网格点RP的可变性。版权所有（C）2008皇家气象学会
Accurate assessment of the magnitude and frequency of extreme wind speed is of fundamental importance for many safety, engineering and reinsurance applications. We utilize the spatial and temporal consistency of the European Centre for Medium Range Forecasts ERA-40 reanalysis data to determine the frequency of extreme winds associated will] wind storms over the eastern North Atlantic and Europe. Two parameters are investigated: 10-m wind gust and 10-m wind speed. The analysis follows two different view-points: In a spatially distributed view, wind-storm statistics are determined individually at each grid-point. In an integral, more generalized view, the wind-storm statistics are determined from extreme wind indices (EWI) that summarize storm magnitude and spatial extent. We apply classical peak over threshold (POT) extreme value analysis techniques (EVA) to the EWI and grid-point wind data. As a reference, a catalogue of the 200 most prominent European storms has been compiled based on available literature. The EWI-based return periods (RP) estimates of catalogue wind storms range from approximately 0.1 to 300 years, whereas grid-point-based RP estimates range from 0.1 to 500+ years. EWIs sensitive to the absolute magnitude of wind speed rank the RP of wind storms in the 1989/1990 and 1999/2000 extended winter season similarly to the RP derived from the distributed approach. The RP estimates derived from EWIs are generally higher when Calculated using only land grid-points compared to RPs derived using whole domain. Both the uncertain ties in EWIs and grid-point-based RPs show a greater dependence on the wind parameter used than on the uncertainty associated with the EVA for IZPs less than 10 years, whereas for RPs greater than 10 years the effect of the different datasets is lower. The EWIs share up to approximately 50% of the variability of the local grid-point RPs. Copyright (C) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society