Spatial mapping of encounter probability in congested waterways using AIS
Spatial mapping of encounter probability in congested waterways using AIS
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DOI：
10.1016/j.oceaneng.2018.06.049
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发表时间：
2018-09
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Y. C. Altan;E. Otay
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Y. C. Altan;E. Otay
船只在拥挤的水道中比在公海上更容易发生碰撞。虽然在大多数水道中，总的事故概率是已知的，但它们的空间分布，即使是世界上最危险的水道，通常也没有详细的地图。现有的解决方案是将船舶沿着预定的航线分布，这扭曲了实际的空间分布。该模型允许使用长期AIS数据作为输入，以计算在二维水道中的相遇概率。该模型在伊斯坦布尔海峡进行了测试，该海峡被划分为多个部门，并进一步细分为单元。结果表明，海峡狭窄通道的存在，使船舶密度增大，碰撞概率增大。另外，SOI中的急转弯引起碰撞直径的额外扩展，这进一步增加了事故概率。以部门为基础的方法提供了一个更好的了解空间分布的事故在高分辨率的数字地图，这是有用的船长，交通管制员和其他利益相关者采取必要的预防措施。
Ships in congested waterways are more prone to collision than open sea conditions. Although in most waterways, the overall accident probability is known, their spatial distribution, even for the most dangerous waterways in the world, is not commonly available as a detailed map. Existing solutions distribute the ships along predetermined routes which distorts the actual spatial distribution.In this study, a collision model is developed based on molecular collision theory. The model allows the use of long-term AIS data as input to calculate the encounter probability in two-dimensional waterways. The model is tested in the Strait of Istanbul, which is divided into sectors and further subdivided into cells. The encounter probability is calculated using vessel kinematics extracted from one-year AIS data.Results show that the collision probability increases as the narrow passages in the Strait intensify the ship density. Also, sharp turns in the SOI cause additional expansion in collision diameters which further increases the accident probability.The results are compatible with the observed collision accident locations. The sector-based approach provides a better understanding of the spatial distribution of accidents in high-resolution digital maps which are useful for captains, traffic controllers and other stakeholders to take necessary precautions.