Models with environmental drivers offer a plausible mechanism for the rapid spread of infectious disease outbreaks in marine organisms
Models with environmental drivers offer a plausible mechanism for the rapid spread of infectious disease outbreaks in marine organisms
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-020-62118-4
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发表时间：
2020-04-06
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
De Leo, G. A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Aalto, E. A.;Lafferty, K. D.;De Leo, G. A.
2013 年，海星消耗性疾病 (SSWD) 流行的最初迹象在短短几个月内就出现在整个北美太平洋沿岸。疾病动态并未表现为反应扩散流行病学模型的典型行波，这表明其他环境因素可能发挥了一定作用。为了帮助探索外部因素如何引发疾病，我们建立了一个耦合的海洋学-流行病学模型，并对比了关于温度对疾病传播和致病性影响的三种假设。将死亡率与海面温度联系起来的模型给出的模式与海星消耗疾病的观测数据更加一致，这表明环境压力可以解释为什么一些海洋疾病似乎传播得如此之快并对宿主种群产生区域范围的影响。
The first signs of sea star wasting disease (SSWD) epidemic occurred in just few months in 2013 along the entire North American Pacific coast. Disease dynamics did not manifest as the typical travelling wave of reaction-diffusion epidemiological model, suggesting that other environmental factors might have played some role. To help explore how external factors might trigger disease, we built a coupled oceanographic-epidemiological model and contrasted three hypotheses on the influence of temperature on disease transmission and pathogenicity. Models that linked mortality to sea surface temperature gave patterns more consistent with observed data on sea star wasting disease, which suggests that environmental stress could explain why some marine diseases seem to spread so fast and have region-wide impacts on host populations.