Using LMDI to analyze the decoupling of carbon dioxide emissions by China's manufacturing industry
Using LMDI to analyze the decoupling of carbon dioxide emissions by China's manufacturing industry
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利用LMDI分析中国制造业二氧化碳排放脱钩
DOI：
10.1016/j.envdev.2013.11.003
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发表时间：
2014-01-01
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Chen, XiaoHong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ren, Shenggang;Yin, Hongyuan;Chen, XiaoHong
本文采用基于扩展卡亚恒等式的对数平均Divisia指数（LMDI）方法，考察了1996-2010年中国制造业产业结构、经济产出、能源结构、能源强度和排放因子对制造业二氧化碳排放总量的影响。此外，本文还提出了中国制造业脱钩的理论框架，计算了中国制造业脱钩效应的变化趋势。结果表明。中国制造业经历了四个脱钩阶段：强负脱钩阶段（1996-1999年）、弱脱钩阶段（2000-2001年）、扩张负脱钩阶段（2002-2004年）和弱脱钩阶段（2005-2010年）。然后分析了各个时期脱钩阶段不同的原因。结果表明，经济产出的增加对CO2排放量的增加影响最大，能源强度的降低使CO2排放量显著下降。排放因素、产业结构和能源结构对CO2排放量的影响相对较小，不是CO2排放量变化的决定性因素。(C)2013爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
This paper adopts the Log Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method based on the extended Kaya identity to explore the impacts of industry structure, economic output, energy structure, energy intensity, and emission factors on the total carbon dioxide emissions from China's manufacturing industry during the period 1996-2010. In addition, we calculate the trend of decoupling effects in manufacturing industry in China by presenting a theoretical framework for decoupling. As the results suggest. China's manufacturing industry has gone through four decoupling stages: strong negative decoupling stage (1996-1999), weak decoupling stage (2000-2001), expansive negative decoupling stage (2002-2004) and weak decoupling stage (2005-2010). Then we analyze the reasons for different decoupling stages during each period. The results show that the increase in economic output has the largest effect on the increase of CO2 emissions and that the decrease in energy intensity has incurred a considerable decrease in CO2 emissions. Moreover, the impacts of emission factors, industry structure, and energy structure on CO2 emissions are relatively small and not the determining factors to the changes of CO2 emissions. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.