Development of a global computable general equilibrium model coupled with detailed energy end-use technology
Development of a global computable general equilibrium model coupled with detailed energy end-use technology
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DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.04.074
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发表时间：
2014-09-01
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
Matsuoka, Yuzuru
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fujimori, Shinichiro;Mosui, Toshihiko;Matsuoka, Yuzuru
本文建立了一个包含详细能源终端技术的全球可计算一般均衡模型。本文（1）介绍了如何在模型中处理能源终端使用技术，（2）分析了模型的行为特征。明确考虑了能源服务需求和终端使用技术，并通过离散概率函数（即Logit函数）确定技术份额，以满足能源服务需求。与详细的技术信息的耦合使CGE模型在能源消耗方面具有更真实的代表性。在相同假设下，在与2度气候减缓目标大致一致的减缓和不减缓情景下，将本文提出的模型与综合传统模型进行了比较。虽然能源供应和温室气体排放总量的结果相似，但总量和详细技术模型之间有三个主要区别。首先，在减缓情景下，详细技术模型中的GDP损失（2050年为2.8%）低于汇总模型（3.2%）。第二，价格弹性和自主能源效率的提高是异构的地区和部门在详细的技术模型，而传统的聚合模型通常使用一个单一的值为每个这些变量。第三，在详细的技术模型中，各部门的减排量和与气候缓解有关的因素（能源强度和碳因素减少）也各不相同。详细技术模型中的家庭部门在能源强度和碳系数方面都有相对较高的减少。(C)2014爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
A global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model integrating detailed energy end-use technologies is developed in this paper. The paper (1) presents how energy end-use technologies are treated within the model and (2) analyzes the characteristics of the model's behavior. Energy service demand and end-use technologies are explicitly considered, and the share of technologies is determined by a discrete probabilistic function, namely a Logit function, to meet the energy service demand. Coupling with detailed technology information enables the CGE model to have more realistic representation in the energy consumption. The proposed model in this paper is compared with the aggregated traditional model under the same assumptions in scenarios with and without mitigation roughly consistent with the two degree climate mitigation target. Although the results of aggregated energy supply and greenhouse gas emissions are similar, there are three main differences between the aggregated and the detailed technologies models. First, GDP losses in mitigation scenarios are lower in the detailed technology model (2.8% in 2050) as compared with the aggregated model (3.2%). Second, price elasticity and autonomous energy efficiency improvement are heterogeneous across regions and sectors in the detailed technology model, whereas the traditional aggregated model generally utilizes a single value for each of these variables. Third, the magnitude of emissions reduction and factors (energy intensity and carbon factor reduction) related to climate mitigation also varies among sectors in the detailed technology model. The household sector in the detailed technology model has a relatively higher reduction for both energy intensity and the carbon factor. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.