Anthropogenic Warming and Population Growth May Double US Heat Stress by the Late 21st Century
Anthropogenic Warming and Population Growth May Double US Heat Stress by the Late 21st Century
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DOI：
10.1029/2020ef001886
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发表时间：
2021-05-01
期刊：
影响因子：
8.2
通讯作者：
Raymond, Colin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mukherjee, Sourav;Mishra, Ashok Kumar;Raymond, Colin
在全球范围内，热应激（HS）几乎肯定会在未来几十年迅速增加，其特征是极端温度和湿度的频率，严重程度和时空范围增加。虽然这些特征已被独立调查，但将它们整合在一起的整体分析可能会提供更多信息。使用观测，气候预测从CMIP 5模式合奏，历史和未来的人口估计，我们应用IPCC的风险框架，以检查目前和预计未来的潜在影响（PI）的夏季热应力的连续美国（CONUS）作为一个功能的非平稳HS特征和人口暴露。我们发现，在最高排放情景下，到本世纪末（2060-2099年），美国人口稠密地区（包括东北部、东南部皮埃蒙特、中西部和西南沙漠部分地区）的中短期（1-7天）HS事件的PI可能会增加3倍以上。仅气候变化的贡献就使太平洋西北沿岸、加州中部和五大湖地区的影响增加了一倍多，这意味着如果不采取积极的减缓措施，HS风险将大幅增加。
Globally, heat stress (HS) is nearly certain to increase rapidly over the coming decades, characterized by increased frequency, severity, and spatiotemporal extent of extreme temperature and humidity. While these characteristics have been investigated independently, a holistic analysis integrating them is potentially more informative. Using observations, climate projections from the CMIP5 model ensemble, and historical and future population estimates, we apply the IPCC risk framework to examine present and projected future potential impact (PI) of summer heat stress for the contiguous United States (CONUS) as a function of non-stationary HS characteristics and population exposure. We find that the PI of short-to-medium duration (1-7 days) HS events is likely to increase more than three-fold across densely populated regions of the U.S. including the Northeast, Southeast Piedmont, Midwest, and parts of the Desert Southwest by late this century (2060-2099) under the highest emissions scenario. The contribution from climate change alone more than doubles the impact in the coastal Pacific Northwest, central California, and the Great Lakes region, implying a substantial increase in HS risk without aggressive mitigation efforts.