Effects of a Delayed Expansion of Interconnector Capacities in a High RES-E European Electricity System
Effects of a Delayed Expansion of Interconnector Capacities in a High RES-E European Electricity System
复制标题
高 RES-E 欧洲电力系统中互连器容量延迟扩展的影响
作者：
David Ritter;R. Meyer;Matthias Koch;M. Haller;D. Bauknecht;Christoph Heinemann
为了在电力系统中实现较高的可再生能源份额，计划大幅度扩大跨境交换能力。从历史上看，互联网容量的实际扩展大大落后于计划的扩展。本研究探讨了在雄心勃勃的能源转型情景下，与强大的互联网扩张相比，这种持续延迟会产生的影响。为此，使用电力市场模型PowerFlex EU对2030年、2040年和2050年的情景进行了研究。分析表明，如果互连扩展延迟，则二氧化碳排放量和发电的可变成本都会增加。这一影响在2050年的情景中最为显著，在这一情景中，较低的连通性导致二氧化碳排放量和发电的可变成本大约翻一番。这一增长的原因是欧洲电力交易水平较低，可再生能源（RES-E）的电力削减以及相应的传统发电水平较高。最值得注意的是，在南欧和中欧，由于来自北方的可再生电力可纳入欧洲电网的数量减少，因此互联程度降低导致天然气发电厂的使用增加。
In order to achieve a high renewable share in the electricity system, a significant expansion of cross-border exchange capacities is planned. Historically, the actual expansion of interconnector capacities has significantly lagged behind the planned expansion. This study examines the impact that such continued delays would have when compared to a strong interconnector expansion in an ambitious energy transition scenario. For this purpose, scenarios for the years 2030, 2040, and 2050 are examined using the electricity market model PowerFlex EU. The analysis reveals that both CO2 emissions and variable costs of electricity generation increase if interconnector expansion is delayed. This effect is most significant in the scenario year 2050, where lower connectivity leads roughly to a doubling of both CO2 emissions and variable costs of electricity generation. This increase results from a lower level of European electricity trading, a curtailment of electricity from a renewable energy source (RES-E), and a corresponding higher level of conventional electricity generation. Most notably, in Southern and Central Europe, less interconnection leads to higher use of natural gas power plants since less renewable electricity from Northern Europe can be integrated into the European grid.