Global increase of ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons from 2010 to 2020
Global increase of ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons from 2010 to 2020
复制标题
DOI：
10.1038/s41561-023-01147-w
复制
发表时间：
2023-04
影响因子：
18.3
通讯作者：
L. Western;M. Vollmer;P. Krummel;Karina E. Adcock;M. Crotwell;P. Fraser;C. Harth;R. Langenfelds;S. Montzka;Jens Mühle;S. O'Doherty;D. Oram;S. Reimann;M. Rigby;I. Vimont;R. Weiss;D. Young;J. Laube
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
L. Western;M. Vollmer;P. Krummel;Karina E. Adcock;M. Crotwell;P. Fraser;C. Harth;R. Langenfelds;S. Montzka;Jens Mühle;S. O'Doherty;D. Oram;S. Reimann;M. Rigby;I. Vimont;R. Weiss;D. Young;J. Laube
根据《蒙特利尔议定书》，2010年全球禁止生产最终会释放到大气中的氯氟烃（CFCs）。在这里，我们使用测量与大气传输模型相结合，以显示2010年至2020年期间五种CFC的大气丰度和排放量是如何增加的，这与逐步淘汰的目标相反。《蒙特利尔议定书》允许氟氯化碳生产用作生产其他化学品的原料。氟氯化碳-113 a、氟氯化碳-114 a和氟氯化碳-115的排放可能是在生产氢氟碳化合物的过程中产生的，氢氟碳化合物在许多用途上已取代氟氯化碳。CFC-13和CFC-112 a排放量增加的驱动因素更加不确定。2010年至2020年期间，氟氯化碳-13、氟氯化碳-112 a、氟氯化碳-113 a、氟氯化碳-114 a和氟氯化碳-115的合计排放量从1.6 ± 0.2 ODP千兆克/年（氟氯化碳-11的臭氧消耗潜能值当量）增至4.2 ± 0.4 ODP千兆克/年。预计这些排放对平流层臭氧恢复的影响很小。然而，五种重点氟氯化碳的持续排放量如果继续增加，可能会抵消《蒙特利尔议定书》所带来的一些惠益。此外，还需要考虑这些氟氯化碳排放对气候的影响，因为它们在2020年的排放量相当于47 ± 5 TgCO 2。
The production of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) that would ultimately be released to the atmosphere was banned globally in 2010 under the Montreal Protocol. Here we use measurements combined with an atmospheric transport model to show how atmospheric abundances and emissions of five CFCs increased between 2010 and 2020, contrary to the goals of the phase-out. The Montreal Protocol allows CFC production for use as a feedstock to produce other chemicals. Emissions of CFC-113a, CFC-114a and CFC-115 probably arise during the production of hydrofluorocarbons, which have replaced CFCs for many applications. The drivers behind increasing emissions of CFC-13 and CFC-112a are more uncertain. The combined emissions of CFC-13, CFC-112a, CFC-113a, CFC-114a and CFC-115 increased from 1.6 ± 0.2 to 4.2 ± 0.4 ODP-Gg yr-1(CFC-11-equivalent ozone-depleting potential) between 2010 and 2020. The anticipated impact of these emissions on stratospheric ozone recovery is small. However, ongoing emissions of the five CFCs of focus may negate some of the benefits gained under the Montreal Protocol if they continue to rise. In addition, the climate impact of the emissions of these CFCs needs to be considered, as their 2020 emissions are equivalent to 47 ± 5 TgCO2.