Predictability of the recent slowdown and subsequent recovery of large‐scale surface warming using statistical methods
Predictability of the recent slowdown and subsequent recovery of large‐scale surface warming using statistical methods
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DOI：
10.1002/2016gl068159
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发表时间：
2016-04
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
M. Mann;B. Steinman;S. Miller;L. Frankcombe;M. England;A. Cheung
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Mann;B. Steinman;S. Miller;L. Frankcombe;M. England;A. Cheung
21世纪初大规模地表变暖的暂时放缓归因于气候变率的外部和内部来源。使用半经验估计的内部低频变率分量在北方半球，大西洋和太平洋表面温度与统计后报实验，我们调查是否放缓和最近的复苏是可预测的。我们的结论是，北太平洋的内部变化，其中发挥了关键作用的放缓，似乎并没有被预测使用统计预测方法。相比之下，来自北大西洋的另一个较小的贡献似乎表现出一定的可预测性。虽然我们的分析重点结合半经验估计的内部气候变率与统计后报实验，初始化模型预测的可能影响也进行了讨论。
The temporary slowdown in large‐scale surface warming during the early 2000s has been attributed to both external and internal sources of climate variability. Using semiempirical estimates of the internal low‐frequency variability component in Northern Hemisphere, Atlantic, and Pacific surface temperatures in concert with statistical hindcast experiments, we investigate whether the slowdown and its recent recovery were predictable. We conclude that the internal variability of the North Pacific, which played a critical role in the slowdown, does not appear to have been predictable using statistical forecast methods. An additional minor contribution from the North Atlantic, by contrast, appears to exhibit some predictability. While our analyses focus on combining semiempirical estimates of internal climatic variability with statistical hindcast experiments, possible implications for initialized model predictions are also discussed.