Policy shifts influence the functional changes of the CNH systems on the Mongolian plateau
Policy shifts influence the functional changes of the CNH systems on the Mongolian plateau
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/085003
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发表时间：
2015-08-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Dong, Gang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chen, Jiquan;John, Ranjeet;Dong, Gang
通过应用耦合的自然和人类系统（CNH）的概念，我们比较了时空变化的牲畜（LSK），土地覆盖和生态系统生产，了解自然和社会驱动力的相对作用，对CNH动态在蒙古高原。我们使用1981年至2010年内蒙古和蒙古州的社会经济和物理数据来表示净初级生产力（NPP），增强植被指数（EVI），降水量，年平均温度，LSK，牲畜密度（LSKD），土地覆盖变化（LCC），国内生产总值（GDP）和人口（POP）的变化。LSK等比率：NPP，LSKD：EVI，LSKD：LSK，埃克塞特：POP和LSK：通过对内蒙古与蒙古国GDP的比较分析，运用结构方程模型（SEM）对内蒙古与蒙古国GDP之间的复杂互动关系进行了定量研究。在不同生物群落之间以及内蒙古与蒙古之间，LSK、POP和经济发展水平存在显著差异。当把中国加入WTO、第三次退耕还林（ATAR-3）、退耕还林（GFG）等政策变化的指标加入到结构方程模型中时，上述关系的强度发生了显著变化。中国加入WTO后，内蒙古地区LSKD：LCC与LSKD：NPP的相关性大大增强，而NPP：LCC的相关性减弱。在蒙古，ATAR-3计划最初似乎是一个无关紧要的政策，但苏联解体增强了LSKD：LCC之间的相关性，削弱了LCC：NPP的联系，并没有影响LSKD：NPP。我们的结论是，蒙古CNH系统的人类影响超过了生物物理变化，但在时间和每个生物群落的意义，以及内蒙古和蒙古之间的变化。
By applying the concept of the coupled natural and human system (CNH), we compared spatiotemporal changes in livestock (LSK), land cover, and ecosystem production to understand the relative roles that natural and social driving forces have on CNH dynamics on the Mongolia plateau. We used socioeconomic and physical data at prefecture level for Inner Mongolia and Mongolia from 1981 through 2010 to represent changes in net primary productivity (NPP), enhanced vegetation index (EVI), precipitation, annual average temperature, LSK, livestock density (LSKD), land cover change (LCC), gross domestic production (GDP), and population (POP). The ratios such as LSK: NPP, LSKD: EVI, LSKD: albedo, LSK: POP, and LSK: GDP were examined and compared between Inner Mongolia and Mongolia, and structural equation modeling (SEM) was applied to quantify the complex interactions. Substantial differences in LSK, POP, and economic development were found among the biomes and between Inner Mongolia and Mongolia. When various indicators for policy shifts-such as the World Trade Organization (WTO) for China, the Third Campaign to Reclaim Abandoned Agriculture Lands (ATAR-3), and the Grain for Green Program for China (GFG)-were added into our SEM, the results showed significant change in the strength of the above relationships. After China joined the WTO, the relationships in Inner Mongolia between LSKD: LCC and LSKD: NPP were immensely strengthened, whereas relationships in NPP: LCC were weakened. In Mongolia, the ATAR-3 program first appeared to be an insignificant policy, but the Collapse of the Soviet Union enhanced the correlation between LSKD: LCC, weakened the connection of LCC: NPP, and did not affect LSKD: NPP. We conclude that human influences on the Mongolian CNH system exceeded those of the biophysical changes, but that the significance varies in time and per biome, as well as between Inner Mongolia and Mongolia.