Methodology for the Calculation of Annualized Incremental Risks in Systems of Dams
Methodology for the Calculation of Annualized Incremental Risks in Systems of Dams
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01547.x
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发表时间：
2011-06
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
A. Serrano-Lombillo;I. Escuder-Bueno;Manuel G. de Membrillera‐Ortuño;L. Altarejos-García
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Serrano-Lombillo;I. Escuder-Bueno;Manuel G. de Membrillera‐Ortuño;L. Altarejos-García
在过去的几年里，大坝安全领域已经接近风险知情的方法在世界各地和一些方法和程序出现，以帮助系统化的计算。实现这些计算的最常见方法是通过使用事件树，计算事件概率和增量后果。这种方法在几种情况下是足够灵活的，但它的推广到几个大坝系统的情况是复杂的，它在一个完全通用的计算方法的实施提出了一些问题。在保留事件树框架的基础上，提出了一种新的增量风险计算方法。这种方法的主要优点是它可以很容易地应用到系统的几个大坝：一个单一的风险模型，描述了完整的系统和一个单一的计算系统的增量风险可以得到，能够分配每个大坝的风险和每个故障模式。本文展示了这两种方法是如何等效的，并将其应用于案例研究。
In the past few years, the field of dam safety has approached risk informed methodologies throughout the world and several methodologies and programs are appearing to aid in the systematization of the calculations. The most common way of implementing these calculations is through the use of event trees, computing event probabilities, and incremental consequences. This methodology is flexible enough for several situations, but its generalization to the case of systems of several dams is complex and its implementation in a completely general calculation methodology presents some problems. Retaining the event tree framework, a new methodology is proposed to calculate incremental risks. The main advantage of this proposed methodology is the ease with which it can be applied to systems of several dams: with a single risk model that describes the complete system and with a single calculation the incremental risks of the system can be obtained, being able to allocate the risk of each dam and of each failure mode. The article shows how both methodologies are equivalent and also applies them to a case study.