MEASURING AMBIGUITY ATTITUDES FOR ALL (NATURAL) EVENTS
MEASURING AMBIGUITY ATTITUDES FOR ALL (NATURAL) EVENTS
复制标题
衡量所有（自然）事件的模糊态度
DOI：
10.3982/ecta14370
复制
发表时间：
2018-09-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6.1
通讯作者：
Wakker, Peter P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Baillon, Aurelien;Huang, Zhenxing;Wakker, Peter P.
迄今为止，对模糊态度的测量主要集中在人为事件上，其中（主观）信念可以从事件的对称性中推导出来，然后可以控制。对于应用中相关的自然事件，通常不存在这种对称性和相应的控制，从而排除了传统的测量方法。本文介绍了两个指标的歧义态度，一个厌恶和其他的不敏感/感知，我们可以控制的可能性信念，即使这些是未知的。因此，我们现在可以测量自然事件的模糊态度。我们的指标在许多模糊理论下都是有效的，不需要风险的预期效用，并且在实践中很容易得出。我们使用我们的指标来研究歧义下的时间压力。在时间压力下，人们不会变得更加模糊，而是变得更加不敏感（感知更多的模糊）。这些发现是合理的，因此，支持我们的指数的有效性。
Measurements of ambiguity attitudes have so far focused on artificial events, where (subjective) beliefs can be derived from symmetry of events and can be then controlled for. For natural events as relevant in applications, such a symmetry and corresponding control are usually absent, precluding traditional measurement methods. This paper introduces two indexes of ambiguity attitudes, one for aversion and the other for insensitivity/perception, for which we can control for likelihood beliefs even if these are unknown. Hence, we can now measure ambiguity attitudes for natural events. Our indexes are valid under many ambiguity theories, do not require expected utility for risk, and are easy to elicit in practice. We use our indexes to investigate time pressure under ambiguity. People do not become more ambiguity averse under time pressure but become more insensitive (perceive more ambiguity). These findings are plausible and, hence, support the validity of our indexes.