Air-quality-related health damages of maize
Air-quality-related health damages of maize
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DOI：
10.1038/s41893-019-0261-y
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发表时间：
2019-05-01
影响因子：
27.6
通讯作者：
Marshall, Julian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hill, Jason;Goodkind, Andrew;Marshall, Julian
农业对于养活大量且不断增长的世界人口至关重要，但它也会产生损害生态系统和人类健康的污染。在这里，我们探讨了玉米生产造成的空气污染对人类健康的影响，玉米是一种用于动物饲料、乙醇生物燃料和人类消费的主要农作物。我们利用县级农业实践和生产力数据来制定玉米的空间明确的生命周期排放清单。从这个清单中，我们估计了健康损害，考虑了大气污染传输和化学，以及人类在高空间分辨率下暴露于污染的情况。我们的研究表明，在美国，玉米生产导致的空气质量下降与每年 4,300 人过早死亡有关，预计造成的货币损失达 390 亿美元（范围：14-640 亿美元）。细颗粒物 (PM2.5) 浓度增加是由使用氮肥导致的氨（PM2.5 前体）排放所致。空气质量下降造成的平均健康损害相当于收获的玉米籽粒价值 121 吨(-1) 美元，占玉米籽粒十年平均市场价格 195 吨(-1) 美元的 62%。我们还估算了玉米生产的生命周期温室气体排放量，发现气候变化造成的总损失为 49 亿美元（范围：1.5-75 亿美元），即玉米的 15 t(-1) 美元。我们的研究结果表明，玉米生产的战略干预具有潜在的好处，包括改变肥料类型和施用方法、提高氮肥利用效率、改种需要较少肥料的作物以及重新调整生产地理。
Agriculture is essential for feeding the large and growing world population, but it can also generate pollution that harms ecosystems and human health. Here, we explore the human health effects of air pollution caused by the production of maize-a key agricultural crop that is used for animal feed, ethanol biofuel and human consumption. We use county-level data on agricultural practices and productivity to develop a spatially explicit life-cycle-emissions inventory for maize. From this inventory, we estimate health damages, accounting for atmospheric pollution transport and chemistry, and human exposure to pollution at high spatial resolution. We show that reduced air quality resulting from maize production is associated with 4,300 premature deaths annually in the United States, with estimated damages in monetary terms of US$39 billion (range: US$14-64 billion). Increased concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) are driven by emissions of ammonia-a PM2.5 precursor-that result from nitrogen fertilizer use. Average health damages from reduced air quality are equivalent to US$121t(-1) of harvested maize grain, which is 62% of the US$195 t(-1) decadal average maize grain market price. We also estimate life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of maize production, finding total climate change damages of US$4.9 billion (range: US$1.5-7.5 billion), or US$15 t(-1) of maize. Our results suggest potential benefits from strategic interventions in maize production, including changing the fertilizer type and application method, improving nitrogen use efficiency, switching to crops requiring less fertilizer, and geographically recating production.