Trajectory sensitivity of the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions
Trajectory sensitivity of the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions
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DOI：
10.1002/2013gl059141
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发表时间：
2014-04
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
J. Krasting;J. Dunne;E. Shevliakova;Ronald J. Stouffer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Krasting;J. Dunne;E. Shevliakova;Ronald J. Stouffer
使用地球系统模型（地球物理流体动力学实验室-ESM 2G）测试瞬态气候对累积排放的响应（TCRE）的鲁棒性，该模型强制使用七种不同的恒定碳排放率（2 GtC/年至25 GtC/年），包括在以前的研究中基本未探索的低排放率。我们发现由不同发射途径产生的TCRE范围为0.76至1.04°C/TtC。然而，这个范围是小的不确定性相比，从不同的模型物理在第五耦合模型相互比较项目合奏。TCRE与排放率有着复杂的关系; TCRE在低排放量（2 GtC/yr）和高排放量（25 GtC/yr）时最大，而在当前排放量（5-10 GtC/yr）时最小。非强迫气候变率妨碍了对短于50年的时期内排放率接近或小于目前数值的TCRE的精确估计。即使碳排放停止，先前的排放途径也会影响未来的气候应对措施。
The robustness of Transient Climate Response to cumulative Emissions (TCRE) is tested using an Earth System Model (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory‐ESM2G) forced with seven different constant rates of carbon emissions (2 GtC/yr to 25 GtC/yr), including low emission rates that have been largely unexplored in previous studies. We find the range of TCRE resulting from varying emission pathways to be 0.76 to 1.04°C/TtC. This range, however, is small compared to the uncertainty resulting from varying model physics across the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ensemble. TCRE has a complex relationship with emission rates; TCRE is largest for both low (2 GtC/yr) and high (25 GtC/yr) emissions and smallest for present‐day emissions (5–10 GtC/yr). Unforced climate variability hinders precise estimates of TCRE for periods shorter than 50 years for emission rates near or smaller than present day values. Even if carbon emissions would stop, the prior emissions pathways will affect the future climate responses.