Social and environmental vulnerability to flooding: Investigating cross-scale hypotheses
Social and environmental vulnerability to flooding: Investigating cross-scale hypotheses
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DOI：
10.1016/j.apgeog.2023.103017
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发表时间：
2023-06-14
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Grady，Caitlin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hinojos，Selena;McPhillips，Lauren;Grady，Caitlin
洪水是一种自然灾害，涉及地球仪的几乎所有方面，由于气候和土地使用的变化，预计洪水将变得更加频繁和严重。然而，洪水对所有人的影响并不相同。因此，了解洪水的影响如何在不同社会经济和人口背景的人群中分布至关重要。减少洪水风险的一种方法是使用社会脆弱性指数和洪水风险度量等指标，为洪水风险管理决策提供信息。然而，这些指标可能面临的规模和地带性的影响所产生的可修改的面积单位问题（MAUP）。本研究探讨了美国人口普查块组，道，县规模的选择影响社会脆弱性和洪水暴露的结果在沿海弗吉尼亚州，美国。在这里，我们展示了（1）尺度选择如何阻碍我们对脆弱性驱动因素的理解，（2）越来越多的聚合尺度显着低估了高度脆弱的人群，（3）社会脆弱性和洪水暴露的热点集群可以确定当前和未来洪水风险降低的可变优先领域。研究结果提出了使用这些指标的考虑因素，考虑到MAUP可能导致的现实后果。这项工作的结果值得理解的规模选择的研究方法的影响，这意味着什么从业者和决策者利用这些信息来帮助指导防洪减灾战略。
Flooding is a natural hazard that touches nearly all facets of the globe and is expected to become more frequent and intensified due to climate and land-use change. However, flooding does not impact all individuals equally. Therefore, understanding how flooding impacts distribute across populations of different socioeconomic and demographic backgrounds is vital. One approach to reducing flood risk on people is using indicators, such as social vulnerability indices and flood exposure metrics, to inform decision-making for flood risk management. However, such indicators can face the scale and zonal effect produced by the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP). This study investigates how the U.S. Census block group, tract, and county scale selection impacts social vulnerability and flood exposure outcomes within coastal Virginia, USA. Here we show how (1) scale selection can obstruct our understanding of drivers of vulnerability, (2) increasingly aggregated scales significantly undercount highly vulnerable populations, and (3) hotspot clusters of social vulnerability and flood exposure can identify variable priority areas for current and future flood risk reduction. Study results present considerations about using such indicators, given the real-life consequences that can occur due to the MAUP. The results of this work warrant understanding the implications of scale selection on research methodological approaches and what this means for practitioners and policymakers that utilize such information to help guide flood mitigation strategies.