A factor of two: how the mitigation plans of 'climate progressive' nations fall far short of Paris-compliant pathways
A factor of two: how the mitigation plans of 'climate progressive' nations fall far short of Paris-compliant pathways
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DOI：
10.1080/14693062.2020.1728209
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发表时间：
2020-05-28
期刊：
影响因子：
7.1
通讯作者：
Stoddard, Isak
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Anderson, Kevin;Broderick, John F.;Stoddard, Isak
《巴黎协定》建立了一项国际公约，以减少排放量，并将温度上升幅度保持在“远低于2摄氏度的水平椭圆”，并追求水平椭圆1.5摄氏度。全球模型研究一再得出结论，这种承诺可以通过对当代社会的技术官僚调整来实现，主要是推动技术变革的价格机制。然而，随着排放量的持续上升，这些模型越来越依赖于高度投机性的负排放技术（NET）的广泛部署。此外，在确定工业化国家的减排挑战时，很少考虑《巴黎协定》所载的公平语言和精神。相反，如果在确定“发达国家缔约方”的缓解议程时不依赖全球规模的净排放量，并真正考虑到公平和“共同但有区别的责任和各自的能力”，那么必要的缓解率就会显著提高。即使考虑到英国和瑞典，这两个国家处于制定“渐进式”气候变化立法的前沿，并且具有明确的排放路径和/或量化碳预算，这一点也是显而易见的。在这两种情况下，支撑减缓政策的碳预算都减少了一半，立即减缓率提高到每年10%以上，并且实现完全脱碳能源系统的时间提前到2035-40年。这种具有挑战性的减缓议程意味着工业化经济体的许多方面将发生深刻变化。这一结论并非来自政治意识形态，而是国际社会在《巴黎协定》下的义务和全球碳预算小而迅速减少的直接后果。如果发达国家不相信成功部署全球规模的负排放技术，那么从2020年起，如果它们要使其政策与巴黎协定的温度承诺和公平原则保持一致，就需要达到两位数的年减排率。发达国家符合巴黎标准的碳预算意味着到2035-40年实现能源完全脱碳，这就需要对有形基础设施进行大规模改革，让人想起二战后的马歇尔计划。这就突出了价值观、衡量繁荣和社会经济不平等的问题。符合巴黎协定的途径的严格性严重限制了部门间排放交易的机会。因此，与所有部门一样，航空业将需要确定直接或通过使用零碳燃料将排放量减少到零的政策。英国和瑞典政府的排放路径意味着碳预算至少比其对实现巴黎协定1.5-2摄氏度承诺的公平贡献大两倍。
The Paris Agreement establishes an international covenant to reduce emissions in line with holding the increase in temperature to 'well below 2 degrees C horizontal ellipsis and to pursue horizontal ellipsis 1.5 degrees C.' Global modelling studies have repeatedly concluded that such commitments can be delivered through technocratic adjustments to contemporary society, principally price mechanisms driving technical change. However, as emissions have continued to rise, so these models have come to increasingly rely on the extensive deployment of highly speculative negative emissions technologies (NETs). Moreover, in determining the mitigation challenges for industrialized nations, scant regard is paid to the language and spirit of equity enshrined in the Paris Agreement. If, instead, the mitigation agenda of 'developed country Parties' is determined without reliance on planetary scale NETs and with genuine regard for equity and 'common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities', the necessary rates of mitigation increase markedly. This is evident even when considering the UK and Sweden, two nations at the forefront of developing 'progressive' climate change legislation and with clear emissions pathways and/or quantitative carbon budgets. In both cases, the carbon budgets underpinning mitigation policy are halved, the immediate mitigation rate is increased to over 10% per annum, and the time to deliver a fully decarbonized energy system is brought forward to 2035-40. Such a challenging mitigation agenda implies profound changes to many facets of industrialized economies. This conclusion is not drawn from political ideology, but rather is a direct consequence of the international community's obligations under the Paris Agreement and the small and rapidly dwindling global carbon budget. Key Policy Insights Without a belief in the successful deployment of planetary scale negative emissions technologies, double-digit annual mitigation rates are required of developed countries, from 2020, if they are to align their policies with the Paris Agreement's temperature commitments and principles of equity. Paris-compliant carbon budgets for developed countries imply full decarbonization of energy by 2035-40, necessitating a scale of change in physical infrastructure reminiscent of the post-Second World War Marshall Plan. This brings issues of values, measures of prosperity and socio-economic inequality to the fore. The stringency of Paris-compliant pathways severely limits the opportunity for inter-sectoral emissions trading. Consequently aviation, as with all sectors, will need to identify policies to reduce emissions to zero, directly or through the use of zero carbon fuels. The UK and Swedish governments' emissions pathways imply a carbon budget of at least a factor of two greater than their fair contribution to delivering on the Paris Agreement's 1.5-2 degrees C commitment.