Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios
Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.008
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发表时间：
2004-04-01
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
Fischer, G
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Parry, ML;Rosenzweig, C;Fischer, G
本文分析了相关的社会经济和气候情景对作物产量、生产和饥饿风险的全球影响。根据政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）排放情景特别报告（SRES）A1 FI、A2、B I和B2，对HadCM 3全球气候模式开发的气候变化情景进行了气候变化潜在影响的估算。预测的产量变化是使用根据作物模型模拟得出的传递函数计算的，该模型采用观测到的气候数据和预测的气候变化情景。基本关联系统（BLS）用于评估全球谷物产量、谷物价格和面临饥饿风险的人数的变化，作物产量结果阐明了预测的气候变量、CO2效应和农业系统的复杂区域模式，这些模式有助于全球作物生产的聚集。正如预期的那样，A1 FI情景将导致全球气温大幅上升，在区域和全球范围内，特别是到21世纪80年代，产量下降幅度最大。在A2 a-c情景下，发达国家和发展中国家产量变化的对比最大。在131和B2情景下，发达国家和发展中国家的作物产量变化对比较小，B2情景下的未来作物产量变化略好于B1情景下的未来作物产量变化。在本世纪剩余的时间里，似乎能够继续在SRES情景下养活自己。然而，这一结果是通过发达国家（主要受益于气候变化）的生产来实现的，主要是为了补偿发展中国家的预测下降。虽然全球产量似乎稳定，但作物生产的区域差异可能会随着时间的推移越来越大，导致影响的严重两极分化，价格大幅上涨，较贫穷国家面临饥饿风险，特别是在不平等加剧的情况下（A1 FI和A2）. SRES假设情景的使用突出了世界粮食供应系统中的几个非线性，在社会经济意义上，人口动态以及经济和政治结构的变化使将气候变化的生物物理影响转化为社会指数（如面临饥饿风险的人数）变得复杂。(C)2003 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。
This paper analyses the global consequences to crop yields, production, and risk of hunger of linked socio-economic and climate scenarios. Potential impacts of climate change are estimated for climate change scenarios developed from the HadCM3 global climate model under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1FI, A2, B I, and B2. Projected changes in yield are calculated using transfer functions derived from crop model simulations with observed climate data and projected climate change scenarios. The basic linked system (BLS) is used to evaluate consequent changes in global cereal production, cereal prices and the number of people at risk from hunger.The crop yield results elucidate the complex regional patterns of projected climate variables, CO2 effects, and agricultural systems that contribute to aggregations of global crop production. The A1FI scenario, as expected with its large increase in global temperatures, exhibits the greatest decreases both regionally and globally in yields, especially by the 2080s. The contrast between the yield change in developed and developing countries is largest under the A2a-c scenarios. Under the 131 and B2 scenarios, developed and developing countries exhibit less contrast in crop yield changes, with the B2 future crop yield changes being slightly more favourable than those of the B1 scenario.When crop yield results are introduced to the BLS world food trade system model, the combined model and scenario experiments demonstrate that the world, for the most part, appears to be able to continue to feed itself under the SRES scenarios during the rest of this century. However, this outcome is achieved through production in the developed countries (which mostly benefit from climate change) compensating for declines projected, for the most part, for developing nations. While global production appears stable, regional differences in crop production are likely to grow stronger through time, leading to a significant polarisation of effects, with substantial increases in prices and risk of hunger amongst the poorer nations, especially under scenarios of greater inequality (A1FI and A2).The use of the SRES scenarios highlights several non-linearities in the world food supply system, both in the biophysical sense, where the levels of atmospheric CO2 tested reach new levels, and the socio-economic sense, where changes in population dynamics and economic and political structures complicate the translation of biophysical climate change impacts into social indices, such as the number of people at risk of hunger. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.