Disentangling Dynamic Contributions to Summer 2018 Anomalous Weather Over Europe
Disentangling Dynamic Contributions to Summer 2018 Anomalous Weather Over Europe
复制标题
DOI：
10.1029/2019gl084601
复制
发表时间：
2019-11-07
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Woollings, Tim
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Drouard, Marie;Kornhuber, Kai;Woollings, Tim
2018年夏天是欧洲西北部经历的最干燥和最热的夏天之一。相比之下，南欧地区天气凉爽、潮湿，希腊和西班牙发生洪水。从6月21日开始的3周内，这种对比模式尤其增强。两种大气模式被认为在很大程度上促成了这种异常天气：正的北大西洋涛动（NAO+）和7波模式。使用线性回归的趋势数据，我们表明，NAO+是主要负责观察到的季节性异常。然而，在3周期间，NAO+和Wave-7的罕见组合对于解释所观察到的异常模式是必要的。全球变暖的趋势，并在较小程度上，非线性过程被证明有进一步强烈调制的异常与这两种模式。
Summer 2018 was one of the driest and hottest experienced over northwestern Europe. In contrast, over southern Europe, it was marked by cooler and wetter conditions with flooding over Greece and Spain. This contrasting pattern was particularly enhanced over a 3-week period starting on 21 June. Two atmospheric patterns are thought to have largely contributed to this anomalous weather: the positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO+) and a Wave-7 pattern. Using linear regressions on detrended data, we show that the NAO+ was mainly responsible for the observed seasonal anomalies. However, during the 3-week period, the rare combination of the NAO+ and Wave-7 is necessary to explain the pattern of the observed anomalies. The global warming trend and, to a lesser extent, nonlinear processes are shown to have furthermore strongly modulated the anomalies associated with these two patterns.