Multi-wheat-model ensemble responses to interannual climate variability
Multi-wheat-model ensemble responses to interannual climate variability
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.03.008
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发表时间：
2016-07-01
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Wolf, Joost
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ruane, Alex C.;Hudson, Nicholas I.;Wolf, Joost
我们比较了27个小麦模型的产量对年际气候变化的响应，分析了阿根廷，澳大利亚，印度和荷兰的农业模型相互比较和改进项目（AgMIP）小麦试点的一部分。每个模型都模拟了1981-2010年的粮食产量，我们根据生长季节温度，降水和太阳辐射的年际变化评估结果。用于校准的信息量对大多数模式的气候响应只有很小的影响，即使是小型的多模式集合也证明是有益的。小麦模型聚类揭示了产量对气候响应的共同特征，然而，模型很少在所有四个地点共享相同的聚类，表明实质上的独立性。只有弱关系（R-2
We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981-2010 grain yield, and we evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal common characteristics of yield response to climate; however models rarely share the same cluster at all four sites indicating substantial independence. Only a weak relationship (R-2