The Geopolitics of Iran
The Geopolitics of Iran
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伊朗地缘政治
DOI：
10.1007/978-981-16-3564-9_22
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Pegolo V
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Pegolo V
这最后一章认为，在2020年纳戈尔诺-卡拉巴赫战争之后，高加索地区已成为中等国家地缘政治野心的沃土，这些国家正在竞相填补后美国地区秩序的空白。这场冲突突然改变了地区平衡，促使伊朗、土耳其和俄罗斯争夺影响力。巴基斯坦和以色列等地区外国家的干预，以及中国在高加索战略基础设施方面的既得利益，使新出现的力量平衡变得更加脆弱。本章发现，伊朗对高加索地区的军事和政治代理人战争毫无准备，已经选择从该地区撤退。伊朗的战略最好被视为故意的损害控制：德黑兰在其边境的激烈冲突中损失最大。伊朗的战略有效地实现了该国的大部分基本安全目标，但却导致其区域影响力的重大倒退。本研究采用历史分析与媒介分析相结合的描述性研究方法。报告利用伊朗和国际来源，全面概述了在冲突中发挥作用的各种区域和全球利益，并利用二手文献和智囊团报告，重建了纳戈尔诺-卡拉巴赫实地的冲突动态。这项研究发现，伊朗在整个纳戈尔诺-卡拉巴赫战争中遵循了一项连贯的战略，这与他们自1994年以来在冲突领土上的立场是一致的，并且优先考虑眼前的安全问题，而不是长期的政治目标。该研究仅限于公开的数据。伊朗领导人的选择是通过他们的公开声明推断出来的;虽然已经对官员的言论进行了分析，并与其他来源进行了三角分析，但决策者的有限接触降低了结果的确定性。最后，本章全面阐述了纳戈尔诺-卡拉巴赫冲突的战略重要性，强调了全球地缘政治动态、国家利益以及冲突的历史和人道主义现实之间的联系。
This final chapter argues that following the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war the Caucasus has become fertile ground for the geopolitical ambitions of middle powers who are racing to fill the void of a post-U.S. regional order. The conflict has suddenly shifted regional equilibria, pushing Iran, Turkey, and Russia to compete for influence. The newly emerging balance of power is rendered more fragile by the intervention of extra-regional players such as Pakistan and Israel, as well as by China’s vested interests in strategic infrastructures in the Caucasus. This chapter finds that Iran, unprepared for a military and political proxy war in the Caucasus, has opted to retreat from the region. Iran’s strategy is best viewed as deliberate damage control: Tehran had the most to lose from the entrenchment of a hot conflict on its borders. Iran’s strategy has been effective in achieving most of the country’s fundamental security objectives but has resulted in a significant set-back in its regional influence. This research relies on a descriptive method based on a combination of historical analysis and media analysis. It draws on Iranian and international sources to provide a comprehensive overview of various regional and global interests at play in the conflict and uses secondary literature and think-tanks reports to reconstruct the conflict dynamic at play on the ground in Nagorno-Karabakh. This study finds that Iran has followed a coherent strategy throughout the Nagorno-Karabakh war which is consistent with their position on the conflicted territory since 1994, and which prioritises immediate security concerns over long-term political aims. The study was limited to publicly available data. Iran’s leadership choices are inferred through their public statements; although official’s rhetoric has been analysed and triangulated with other sources, limited accessibility of policymakers reduces certainty of results. Finally, the current chapter presents a comprehensive view of the strategic importance of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, highlighting the connection between global geopolitical dynamics, national interests, and the historical and humanitarian reality of the conflict.