Health effects of climate and air pollution in Buenos Aires: a first time series analysis.
Health effects of climate and air pollution in Buenos Aires: a first time series analysis.
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DOI：
10.4236/jep.2012.33033
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发表时间：
2012-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Lankao, P. R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Abrutzky, R.;Dawidowski, L.;Lankao, P. R.
背景资料：城市空气污染和温度变化对健康的影响越来越受到世界各地流行病学家的关注，特别是在研究较少的发展中国家。目的：本文的主要目标是分析阿根廷布宜诺斯艾利斯气温和大气一氧化碳变化对每日死亡率的短期影响。研究方法：我们进行了一项时间序列研究，重点关注三个年龄组，性别，心血管和呼吸系统死亡率，滞后长达四天，时间变量作为修饰符。结果如下：夏季温度与总死亡率呈正相关，同一天每升高1°C，RR=1.0184（95%，CI 1.0139，1.0229）。在冬季，这种关系逆转，因为1°C的温度升高在3天滞后时表现出保护作用，RR=0.9894（95%，CI 0.9864，0.9924）。一氧化碳总是与死亡率呈正相关，前一天每增加1 ppm，RR=1.0369（95%，CI 1.0206，1.0534）。结论：在布宜诺斯艾利斯市测量的气候和污染参数与健康结果相关。温度和一氧化碳的影响因年龄和性别而异，老年人是最易受影响的亚组。在CO增加1ppm后的一天，可以预期大约4%的额外死亡。CO和死亡率之间的相关性增加更大的滞后可能归因于CO作为城市空气污染的化学标志物的作用，表明其他污染物的共存。
Background: The impact of urban air pollution and temperature changes over health is a growing concern for epidemiologists all over the world and particularly for developing countries where fewer studies have been performed. Aim: The main goal of this paper is to analyze the short term effects of changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon monoxide on daily mortality in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Methods: We conducted a time series study focused on three age groups, gender, and cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, with lags up to four days and temporal variables as modifiers. Results: Temperature correlates positively with total mortality for summer months, with a RR=1.0184 (95%, CI 1.0139, 1.0229) on the same day for each 1°C increase. In winter this relationship reverses, as 1°C temperature increase exhibit a protective effect with a RR=0.9894 (95%, CI 0.9864, 0.9924) at the 3 day lag. Carbon monoxide correlates always positively with mortality, with a RR=1.0369 (95%, CI 1.0206, 1.0534) for each 1 ppm increase, on the previous day. Conclusions: Climate and pollution parameters measured in Buenos Aires City exhibit a correlation with health outcomes. The impacts of temperature and carbon monoxide vary with age and gender, being elderly the most susceptible subgroup. One day after an increase in CO of 1 ppm, about 4% extra deaths can be expected. The correlation found between increases in CO and mortality for greater lags may be ascribed to the role of CO as a chemical marker of urban air pollution, indicating the co-presence of other pollutants.