Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change
Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate2896
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发表时间：
2016-05-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Stone, Daithi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hansen, Gerrit;Stone, Daithi
最近区域气候变化对自然和人类系统的影响在地球仪上都有记载，但将这些观测结果与人为气候强迫明确联系起来的研究却很少。在这里，我们提供了一个系统的评估的作用，人为气候变化的影响范围内的区域气候趋势报告在IPCC的第五次评估报告。我们发现，与大气和海洋温度相关的影响中，近三分之二可以确信地归因于人为强迫。相比之下，将降水变化及其各自的影响与人类影响联系起来的证据仍然很弱。此外，在大陆尺度上观察到的影响中，约有四分之三受到人为气候变化的主要影响。因此，现在不仅可以在全球范围内，而且可以在更大的区域和地方尺度上，对各种自然和人类系统，发现人为排放的影响。
Impacts of recent regional changes in climate on natural and human systems are documented across the globe, yet studies explicitly linking these observations to anthropogenic forcing of the climate are scarce. Here we provide a systematic assessment of the role of anthropogenic climate change for the range of impacts of regional climate trends reported in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report. We find that almost two-thirds of the impacts related to atmospheric and ocean temperature can be confidently attributed to anthropogenic forcing. In contrast, evidence connecting changes in precipitation and their respective impacts to human influence is still weak. Moreover, anthropogenic climate change has been a major influence for approximately three-quarters of the impacts observed on continental scales. Hence the effects of anthropogenic emissions can now be discerned not only globally, but also at more regional and local scales for a variety of natural and human systems.