Evaluating Tsunami Hazard in the Northwestern Indian Ocean
Evaluating Tsunami Hazard in the Northwestern Indian Ocean
复制标题
评估西北印度洋的海啸危险
DOI：
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发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
C. Synolakis
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Heidarzadeh;M. D. Pirooz;N. H. Zaker;C. Synolakis
我们在这里评估西北印度洋的海啸危险。根据地震危险性分析计算出的最大区域地震，作为我国海啸危险性评估的特征地震。这次地震沿Makran俯冲带(MSZ)移动，震级为MW8.3，重现期约1000年，通过数值模拟计算了不同海岸可能发生的海啸波高。地震危险性分析和海啸数值模拟均以1945年马克兰地震和海啸的历史观测为依据进行验证。结果显示，该地区可能发生的海啸最大高度可能达到9.6米。给出了海啸波高沿不同海岸的分布。我们建议在该地区建立海啸预警系统，并强调教育作为减少该地区可能发生的海啸造成的死亡人数的一项措施的价值。
We evaluate here the tsunami hazard in the northwestern Indian Ocean. The maximum regional earthquake calculated from seismic hazard analysis, was used as the characteristic earthquake for our tsunami hazard assessment. This earthquake, with a moment magnitude of Mw 8.3 and a return period of about 1000 years, was moved along the Makran subduction zone (MSZ) and its possible tsunami wave height along various coasts was calculated via numerical simulation. Both seismic hazard analysis and numerical modeling of the tsunami were validated using historical observations of the Makran earthquake and tsunami of the 1945. Results showed that the possible tsunami may reach a maximum height of 9.6 m in the region. The distribution of tsunami wave height along various coasts is presented. We recommend the development of a tsunami warning system in the region, and emphasize the value of education as a measure to mitigate the death toll of a possible tsunami in this region.