Geographic Distributions of Extreme Weather Risk Perceptions in the United States
Geographic Distributions of Extreme Weather Risk Perceptions in the United States
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DOI：
10.1111/risa.13569
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发表时间：
2020-07-28
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Jenkins-Smith, Hank C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Allan, Jinan N.;Ripberger, Joseph T.;Jenkins-Smith, Hank C.
天气和气候灾害对美国的生命和财产构成越来越大的风险。管理这种风险需要关于威胁性质的客观信息和关于人们如何感知它的主观信息。气象学家和气候学家对历史上的客观风险有相对较强的把握。例如，我们知道美国哪些地区最有可能经历干旱、热浪、洪水、冰雪风暴、龙卷风和飓风。我们对气象事件和趋势的感知风险的地理分布知之甚少。主观认知是否与天气风险的暴露相一致？这个问题很难回答，因为分析师还没有开发出一种全面的、空间上一致的方法来衡量美国各地理区域的风险认知。在这个项目中，我们提出了一种方法，使用多级回归和后分层来估计地理区域(即区域、州、预报区和县)的极端天气和气候风险感知。然后，我们使用来自三个国家调查(n=9,542)的数据来应用该方法。这使我们能够测量、绘制地图，并比较全国各地地理区域对多种天气灾害的风险感知。
Weather and climate disasters pose an increasing risk to life and property in the United States. Managing this risk requires objective information about the nature of the threat and subjective information about how people perceive it. Meteorologists and climatologists have a relatively firm grasp of the historical objective risk. For example, we know which parts of the United States are most likely to experience drought, heat waves, flooding, snow or ice storms, tornadoes, and hurricanes. We know less about the geographic distribution of the perceived risks of meteorological events and trends. Do subjective perceptions align with exposure to weather risks? This question is difficult to answer because analysts have yet to develop a comprehensive and spatially consistent methodology for measuring risk perceptions across geographic areas in the United States. In this project, we propose a methodology that uses multilevel regression and poststratification to estimate extreme weather and climate risk perceptions by geographic area (i.e., region, state, forecast area, and county). Then we apply the methodology using data from three national surveys (n= 9,542). This enables us to measure, map, and compare perceptions of risk from multiple weather hazards in geographic areas across the country.