Great Plains storm intensity since the last glacial controlled by spring surface warming
Great Plains storm intensity since the last glacial controlled by spring surface warming
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自末次冰河以来大平原风暴强度受春季地表变暖控制
DOI：
10.1038/s41561-021-00860-8
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
18.3
通讯作者：
Roy, Priyadarsi D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sun, Chijun;Shanahan, Timothy M.;DiNezio, Pedro N.;McKay, Nicholas P.;Roy, Priyadarsi D.
中尺度对流系统（MCSs）为北美大平原的暖季降雨提供了很大一部分，它们是美国中部恶劣天气和洪水的原因。然而，人们对这些系统过去的行为和长期驱动因素知之甚少，这限制了我们预测该地区未来极端天气模式的能力。在这里，我们产生了一个20,000年之久的多代理记录的风暴强度和水文气候变率从德克萨斯州中部的南部大平原，并使用瞬态气候模型模拟诊断重建的动态变化在该地区的气候。我们发现，南部大平原风暴强度动态响应外部强迫与冰川边界条件和轨道强迫通过季节性地表变暖的变化。春季陆地表面变暖使纬向气压梯度变陡，产生一个加强的向南的大平原低空急流，增强向南的水汽输送，增加春季MCS强度。气候模型预测，为了应对未来的变暖，低空急流会加强，我们的研究表明，这将导致MCS活动增强，大平原极端天气增加。
Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) supply a substantial portion of warm-season rainfall to the Great Plains of North America, and they are responsible for severe weather and flooding across the central United States. However, little is known about past behaviour and long-term drivers of these systems, limiting our ability to predict future extreme weather patterns in this region. Here, we generate a 20,000-year-long multiproxy record of storm intensity and hydroclimate variability from central Texas in the southern Great Plains and use transient climate model simulations to diagnose the dynamics of reconstructed changes in the climate of this region. We find that southern Great Plains storm intensity responded dynamically to external forcings associated with glacial boundary conditions and orbital forcing via changes in seasonal land surface warming. Springtime land surface warming steepens the zonal pressure gradient, producing an intensified southerly Great Plains low-level jet, enhancing southerly moisture transport and increasing springtime MCS intensity. Climate models predict a strengthening of the low-level jet in response to future warming, which our study suggests will lead to enhanced MCS activity and an increase in extreme weather across the Great Plains.
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