Evolution of outcomes for patients hospitalised during the first 9 months of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in France: A retrospective national surveillance data analysis.
Evolution of outcomes for patients hospitalised during the first 9 months of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in France: A retrospective national surveillance data analysis.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100087
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发表时间：
2021-06
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Cauchemez S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lefrancq N;Paireau J;Hozé N;Courtejoie N;Yazdanpanah Y;Bouadma L;Boëlle PY;Chereau F;Salje H;Cauchemez S
随着SARS-CoV-2的继续传播，对医疗保健需求和患者结局的全面描述以及它们如何随时间变化，对于制定规划至关重要。我们开发了一个概率框架，以分析法国大流行前9个月内198，846例住院患者的详细轨迹。我们的模型考虑了不同年龄和性别的患者分布，并探讨了结果概率和住院时间的变化。我们发现，在研究期间，住院患者的年龄和性别发生了显著变化。特别是，80岁以上的住院患者比例在整个流行期间在27%至48%之间变化，在高峰期之间最低。随着病例数量的下降，住院患者进入ICU的概率在前四个月从0.25（0.24 - 0.26）下降到0.13（0.12 - 0.14），然后在第二波期间上升到0.19（0.19 - 0.20）。死亡概率遵循类似的轨迹，在第一波之后从0.25（0.24 - 0.26）下降到0.10（0.09 - 0.11），然后在第二波期间再次增加到0.19（0.18 - 0.19）。总体而言，我们发现死亡概率和进入ICU的概率与COVID-19 ICU占用率显著相关。患者结局按年龄、性别和随时间变化存在大规模趋势。这些都需要在正在进行的医疗规划工作中加以考虑。盗窃。
As SARS-CoV-2 continues to spread, a thorough characterisation of healthcare needs and patient outcomes, and how they have changed over time, is essential to inform planning. We developed a probabilistic framework to analyse detailed patient trajectories from 198,846 hospitalisations in France during the first nine months of the pandemic. Our model accounts for the varying age- and sex- distribution of patients, and explore changes in outcome probabilities as well as length of stay. We found that there were marked changes in the age and sex of hospitalisations over the study period. In particular, the proportion of hospitalised individuals that were >80y varied between 27% and 48% over the course of the epidemic, and was lowest during the inter-peak period. The probability of hospitalised patients entering ICU dropped from 0·25 (0·24–0·26) to 0·13 (0·12–0·14) over the four first months as case numbers fell, before rising to 0·19 (0·19–0·20) during the second wave. The probability of death followed a similar trajectory, falling from 0·25 (0·24–0·26) to 0·10 (0·09–0·11) after the first wave before increasing again during the second wave to 0·19 (0·18–0·19). Overall, we find both the probability of death and the probability of entering ICU were significantly correlated with COVID-19 ICU occupancy. There are large scale trends in patients outcomes by age, sex and over time. These need to be considered in ongoing healthcare planning efforts. INCEPTION.
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2004064117
发表时间：
2020-04-21
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
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通讯作者：
Galvani, Alison P.
影响因子：
8.8
作者：
Dennis JM;McGovern AP;Vollmer SJ;Mateen BA
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Mateen BA
影响因子：
105.7
作者：
Petrilli, Christopher M.;Jones, Simon A.;Horwitz, Leora I.
通讯作者：
Horwitz, Leora I.
影响因子：
5
作者：
Lau, Bryan;Cole, Stephen R.;Gange, Stephen J.
通讯作者：
Gange, Stephen J.
DOI：
10.1016/s1473-3099(20)30243-7
发表时间：
2020-06-01
期刊：
The Lancet. Infectious diseases
影响因子：
--
作者：
Verity, Robert;Okell, Lucy C;Ferguson, Neil M
通讯作者：
Ferguson, Neil M