Influence of volcanic activity and changes in solar irradiance on surface air temperatures in the early twentieth century
Influence of volcanic activity and changes in solar irradiance on surface air temperatures in the early twentieth century
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DOI：
10.1029/2005gl025622
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发表时间：
2006-05
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
H. Shiogama;T. Nagashima;T. Yokohata;S. A. Crooks;T. Nozawa
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
H. Shiogama;T. Nagashima;T. Yokohata;S. A. Crooks;T. Nozawa
利用气候模式和最佳探测/归因方法研究了20世纪上半叶全球地表气温变暖的原因。虽然我们的模型似乎低估了人为响应，但我们以前的研究发现了自然外部强迫的影响，包括太阳辐照度变化和大型火山活动恢复的综合影响。我们进一步划分了这两个自然外部因素之间的响应，在观测到的早期变暖中检测到太阳和火山信号。对太阳强迫敏感性的诊断和一次火山超级喷发模拟表明，我们的模式对太阳强迫具有更大的气候敏感性，对火山强迫的松弛时间比HadCM3长，使我们能够同时探测太阳和火山强迫响应。
Causes of the global surface air temperature warming in the early half of the 20th century are examined using a climate model and an optimal detection/attribution methodology. While the anthropogenic response seems to be underestimated in our model, our previous study detected the influence due to natural external forcing, including the combined effects of solar irradiance changes and the recovery from large volcanic activity. We further partition the responses between these two natural external factors, detecting both the solar and the volcanic signal in the observed early warming. A diagnosis of the sensitivity to solar forcing and a volcanic super‐eruption simulation suggest that our model possesses larger climate sensitivities to solar forcing and longer relaxation times to volcanic forcing than HadCM3, enabling us to detect both the solar and volcanic forcing responses.