A General Age-Specific Mortality Model With an Example Indexed by Child Mortality or Both Child and Adult Mortality
A General Age-Specific Mortality Model With an Example Indexed by Child Mortality or Both Child and Adult Mortality
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DOI：
10.1007/s13524-019-00785-3
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发表时间：
2019-06-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Clark, Samuel J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Clark, Samuel J.
非洲大多数国家和所有国家中近三分之一的国家需要死亡率模型来推断进行人口估计、预测/预测以及人口和流行病学方面的其他任务所需的完整的死亡率年龄表。将儿童死亡率与其他年龄段的死亡率联系起来的模型很重要，因为几乎所有国家都有儿童死亡率的衡量标准。使用奇异值分解定义了一个通用的、可参数化的死亡率组成模型（SVD-Comp），并根据人类死亡率数据库中观察到的死亡率表中儿童或儿童/成人死亡率与其他年龄段死亡率之间的关系进行校准。通过交叉验证对模型进行验证，并将模型的预测性能与相同目的的对数二次（Log-Quad）模型进行比较。预测和交叉验证试验表明，校正儿童死亡率的SVD-Comp能够准确地表示人类死亡率数据库中观察到的死亡率表，对用于校正的死亡率表的选择具有鲁棒性，并且优于Log-Quad模型。儿童死亡率校正后的SVD-Comp可在可获得儿童死亡率但其他年龄段的死亡率未知的情况下使用。
The majority of countries in Africa and nearly one-third of all countries require mortality models to infer the complete age schedules of mortality that are required to conduct population estimates, projections/forecasts, and other tasks in demography and epidemiology. Models that relate child mortality to mortality at other ages are important because almost all countries have measures of child mortality. A general, parameterizable component model (SVD-Comp) of mortality is defined using the singular value decomposition and calibrated to the relationship between child or child/adult mortality and mortality at other ages in the observed mortality schedules of the Human Mortality Database. Cross-validation is used to validate the model, and the predictive performance of the model is compared with that of the log-quadratic (Log-Quad) model, which is designed to do the same thing. Prediction and cross-validation tests indicate that the child mortality-calibrated SVD-Comp is able to accurately represent the observed mortality schedules in the Human Mortality Database, is robust to the selection of mortality schedules used for calibration, and performs better than the Log-Quad model. The child mortality-calibrated SVD-Comp can be used where and when child mortality is available but mortality at other ages is unknown.