Regional disparities and seasonal differences in climate risk to rice labour.
Regional disparities and seasonal differences in climate risk to rice labour.
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/ac3288
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发表时间：
2021-12
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Shuckburgh E
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Simpson C;Hosking JS;Mitchell D;Betts RA;Shuckburgh E
全球8.8亿农业工人特别容易受到气候变化带来的日益严重的热应激影响，影响个人健康并降低劳动生产率。在这项研究中，我们关注亚洲各地的水稻收成，并通过考虑每年收割时的气候变化来估计对劳动生产率的未来影响。在一年中的这些特定时间，与一年中的其他时间相比，热应激通常较高。通过检查耦合模型比对项目 6 (CMIP6) 的气候模拟，我们发现，基于当地湿球温度的水稻收获劳动生产率指标与长期全球平均近地表气温密切相关（所有模型中 p < 0.01，R 2 > 0.98）。将全球变暖限制在 1.5°C 而不是 2.0°C 可以防止整个亚洲劳动力能力明显下降 1%，整个东南亚劳动力能力明显下降 2%，从而影响约 1 亿人的生计。由于国家之间和国家内部机械化程度的差异，我们发现印度尼西亚、菲律宾、孟加拉国以及印度西孟加拉邦和喀拉拉邦的稻米劳动力尤其脆弱。我们的结果强调了在估计气候变化对劳动生产率和职业热应激的影响时考虑季节性差异的区域差异和重要性。
The 880 million agricultural workers of the world are especially vulnerable to increasing heat stress due to climate change, affecting the health of individuals and reducing labour productivity. In this study, we focus on rice harvests across Asia and estimate the future impact on labour productivity by considering changes in climate at the time of the annual harvest. During these specific times of the year, heat stress is often high compared to the rest of the year. Examining climate simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6), we identified that labour productivity metrics for the rice harvest, based on local wet-bulb globe temperature, are strongly correlated with global mean near-surface air temperature in the long term (p ≪ 0.01, R 2 > 0.98 in all models). Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C rather than 2.0 °C prevents a clear reduction in labour capacity of 1% across all Asia and 2% across Southeast Asia, affecting the livelihoods of around 100 million people. Due to differences in mechanization between and within countries, we find that rice labour is especially vulnerable in Indonesia, the Philippines, Bangladesh, and the Indian states of West Bengal and Kerala. Our results highlight the regional disparities and importance in considering seasonal differences in the estimation of the effect of climate change on labour productivity and occupational heat-stress.