Country-Specific Effects of Climate Variability on Human Migration.
Country-Specific Effects of Climate Variability on Human Migration.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s10584-015-1592-y
复制
发表时间：
2016-04
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Wise E
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gray C;Wise E
人类非自愿移徙是当前全球气候变化时代最令人关切的社会后果之一。针对这一关切，越来越多的研究采用人口和计量经济学方法，调查了中短期气候变异对人类移徙的影响。这些研究提供了重要的见解，但同时由于缺乏使用气候数据的专门知识、无法获得跨国移徙数据以及对模型规格的关注而受到很大限制。为了克服这些局限性，我们将肯尼亚、乌干达、尼日利亚、布基纳法索和塞内加尔9 812个原籍家庭6年期间的国内和国际移徙数据与来自台站和卫星来源的高分辨率网格气候数据联系起来。使用几种合理的规格对这些数据进行分析后发现，气候变异对移徙有国别影响：在乌干达，移徙往往随着温度异常而增加，在肯尼亚和布基纳法索，移徙往往随着温度异常而减少，在尼日利亚和塞内加尔，移徙与温度没有一致的关系。与以前的研究一致，降水量与各国移民之间的关系很弱，而且不一致。这些结果挑战了概括性的叙述，即预见到地球仪对气候变化的一致的移徙反应。
Involuntary human migration is among the social outcomes of greatest concern in the current era of global climate change. Responding to this concern, a growing number of studies have investigated the consequences of short to medium-term climate variability for human migration using demographic and econometric approaches. These studies have provided important insights, but at the same time have been significantly limited by lack of expertise in the use of climate data, access to cross-national data on migration, and attention to model specification. To address these limitations, we link data on internal and international migration over a 6-year period from 9,812 origin households in Kenya, Uganda, Nigeria, Burkina Faso and Senegal to high-resolution gridded climate data from both station and satellite sources. Analyses of these data using several plausible specifications reveal that climate variability has country-specific effects on migration: Migration tends to increase with temperature anomalies in Uganda, tends to decrease with temperature anomalies in Kenya and Burkina Faso, and shows no consistent relationship with temperature in Nigeria and Senegal. Consistent with previous studies, precipitation shows weak and inconsistent relationships with migration across countries. These results challenge generalizing narratives that foresee a consistent migratory response to climate change across the globe.