Using Large Climate Ensembles to Plan for the Hydrological Impact of Climate Change in the Freshwater Environment
Using Large Climate Ensembles to Plan for the Hydrological Impact of Climate Change in the Freshwater Environment
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DOI：
10.1007/s11269-012-0080-7
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发表时间：
2013-03
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
F. Fung;G. Watts;Ana Lopez;H. Orr;M. New;C. Extence
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
F. Fung;G. Watts;Ana Lopez;H. Orr;M. New;C. Extence
我们探索使用大合奏的气候情景，以告知气候变化适应水文对淡水环境的影响，使用敏感的白垩河在英格兰东南部来说明这种方法。climateprediction.net实验提供了1920年至2080年的大量瞬态气候系列。我们使用246瞬变气候系列CATCHMOD全径流模型开发大合奏的合理的河流流量的伊钦河。这种短暂的合奏允许如何流量可能会改变，通过21世纪的探索，并展示了淡水生态系统的可能后果的范围内，基于无脊椎动物群落的影响。包括抽取在内的水流序列的水文模型可以评估地下水对河流支持的持续有效性。一个新的环境影响矩阵考虑了Itchen淡水生态系统的反应，特别是集中在大型无脊椎动物。整个世纪，越来越多的模型未能达到流动目标，少数模型表明流动将导致无脊椎动物群落发生不可逆转的变化。大集合提供了一个更丰富的可能变化的范围，使管理人员能够探索一系列不同的反应。所采用的方法是说明性的，但表明大型集合在提高对气候变化可能影响的认识方面可能具有很大价值，但条件是它们能够有效地传达给决策者。
We explore the use of large ensembles of climate scenarios to inform climate change adaptation in response to hydrological impacts on the freshwater environment, using a sensitive chalk river in south east England to illustrate the approach. The climateprediction.net experiment provides large ensembles of transient climate series from 1920 to 2080. We use 246 transient climate series in the CATCHMOD rainfall-run-off model to develop large ensembles of plausible river flows for the River Itchen. This transient ensemble allows the exploration of how flows may change through the twenty-first century, and demonstrates the range of possible consequences for freshwater ecosystems, based on invertebrate community impacts. Hydrological modelling of flow sequences including abstraction allows the continued effectiveness of river support from groundwater to be assessed. A new environmental impact matrix considers the response of the freshwater ecosystem in the Itchen, concentrating particularly on macro-invertebrates. Through the century increasing numbers of models fail the flow targets, with a minority of models suggesting flows that would lead to irreversible change to the invertebrate community. The large ensemble provides a richer picture of the range of possible change, allowing managers to explore a range of different responses. The approach used is illustrative, but demonstrates that large ensembles may be of great value in improving the understanding of the possible impact of climate change, provided that they can be communicated effectively to decision-makers.