Investment in the 1970s: Theory, Performance, and Prediction
Investment in the 1970s: Theory, Performance, and Prediction
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20 世纪 70 年代的投资：理论、绩效和预测
DOI：
10.2307/2534305
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发表时间：
1979
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
P. Clark
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
P. Clark
自1975年初以来，人们普遍认为经济复苏的特征之一是企业固定投资增长相对缓慢。例如，1978年底，实际国民生产总值比五年前周期性高峰期的价值高出13.8%。相比之下，实际非住宅固定投资的表现一直很差。它的上一个峰值是在1974年第一季度达到的，直到1978年第二季度才被超过。即使到1978年底，这一比例也只比之前的峰值高出8.1%。在过去五年里，非住宅固定投资的明显低迷引发了对投资动机下降的声明，并警告称，必须改善投资表现，以保持实际收入的增长和减轻通胀压力所需的供应能力。例如，在1977年10月的一次广为人知的演讲中，亚瑟·伯恩斯研究了企业固定投资，发现：在这次扩张的两年半时间里，实际资本支出的平均增幅仅为前五次扩张同期的一半。缺口
ONE of the most widely perceived characteristics of economic recovery since early 1975 has been the relatively slow growth of business fixed investment. At the end of 1978, for example, real GNP was 13.8 percent above the value attained at the cyclical peak five years earlier. By contrast, the performance of real nonresidential fixed investment has been poor. Its previous peak value, reached in the first quarter of 1974, was only surpassed in the second quarter of 1978. Even by the end of 1978, it was only 8.1 percent above the earlier peak. During the past five years, the apparent sluggishness of nonresidential fixed investment has generated pronouncements about the declining incentive to invest and warnings that investment performance must be improved to maintain the growth of real income and of the supply capacity needed to reduce inflationary pressure. For example, in a widely publicized speech in October 1977, Arthur Burns examined business fixed investment and found: "In the two-and-a-half years of this expansion, real capital outlays have increased only half as much as they did, on average, over like periods in the five previous expansions. The shortfall