The potential of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for semi-quantitative scenario development, with an example from Brazil
The potential of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for semi-quantitative scenario development, with an example from Brazil
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.08.003
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发表时间：
2009-02-01
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
Kok, Kasper
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kok, Kasper
故事和模拟方法的主要缺点是定性和定量情景之间的联系薄弱。一个半定量的工具，模糊认知映射，作为一种可能的改进。巴西亚马逊的一个例子表明，通过包括一组综合的因素和反馈，模糊认知地图可以捕捉（未来）森林砍伐的动态。该示例证实了该工具提高叙事故事情节的一致性和定量模型的多样性的能力。然而，该工具被设计为简单的，因此具有重要的缺点。未来的改进应根据在更大的情景方法工具箱中的应用情况进行。(C)2008爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
The main drawback of the Story-and-Simulation approach is the weak link between qualitative and quantitative scenarios. A semi-quantitative tool, Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping, is introduced as a possible improvement. An example from the Brazilian Amazon shows that by including an integrated set of factors and feedbacks, Fuzzy Cognitive Maps can capture (future) dynamics of deforestation. The example substantiates the tool's capacity to improve the consistency of narrative storylines and the diversity of quantitative models. The tool is designed, however, to be simple and therefore has important drawbacks. Future improvements should be made in the light of applications within a larger toolbox of scenario methods. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.