The thermal mismatch hypothesis explains host susceptibility to an emerging infectious disease
The thermal mismatch hypothesis explains host susceptibility to an emerging infectious disease
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DOI：
10.1111/ele.12720
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发表时间：
2017-02-01
期刊：
影响因子：
8.8
通讯作者：
Rohr, Jason R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cohen, Jeremy M.;Venesky, Matthew D.;Rohr, Jason R.
寄生虫通常具有比宿主更宽的热限制，因此病原体与其冷适应和热适应宿主之间的巨大性能差距应该分别发生在相对温暖和寒冷的温度下。我们测试了这种热不匹配的假设，通过量化的温度依赖性的易感性的寒冷和温暖的适应两栖动物物种的真菌病原体Batrachochytrium dendrobaeae（Bd）使用实验室实验和现场流行率估计从15 410个人在598个人口。在实验室和现场，我们发现，最大的易感性冷和温暖的主机发生在相对温暖和凉爽的温度，分别为热失配假说提供了支持。我们的研究结果表明，随着气候变化使宿主远离其最佳温度，宿主对传染病易感性增加的可能性可能会增加，但影响将取决于宿主物种和气候变化的方向。我们的研究结果有助于解释不同气候条件下物种对Bd反应的巨大差异，以及与极端天气事件相关的疾病爆发的空间，时间和物种水平变化，这些事件随着气候变化变得越来越常见。
Parasites typically have broader thermal limits than hosts, so large performance gaps between pathogens and their cold-and warm-adapted hosts should occur at relatively warm and cold temperatures, respectively. We tested this thermal mismatch hypothesis by quantifying the temperature-dependent susceptibility of cold-and warm-adapted amphibian species to the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) using laboratory experiments and field prevalence estimates from 15 410 individuals in 598 populations. In both the laboratory and field, we found that the greatest susceptibility of cold-and warm-adapted hosts occurred at relatively warm and cool temperatures, respectively, providing support for the thermal mismatch hypothesis. Our results suggest that as climate change shifts hosts away from their optimal temperatures, the probability of increased host susceptibility to infectious disease might increase, but the effect will depend on the host species and the direction of the climate shift. Our findings help explain the tremendous variation in species responses to Bd across climates and spatial, temporal and species-level variation in disease outbreaks associated with extreme weather events that are becoming more common with climate change.