Evolution and epidemic spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil
Evolution and epidemic spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil
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DOI：
10.1126/science.abd2161
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发表时间：
2020-09-04
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Faria, Nuno Rodrigues
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Candido, Darlan S.;Claro, Ingra M.;Faria, Nuno Rodrigues
巴西目前是世界上严重急性呼吸道综合征冠状病毒2型（SARS-CoV-2）疫情增长最快的国家之一。由于可用数据有限，评估非药物干预（NPI）对这种病毒传播的影响仍然具有挑战性。使用流动性驱动的传输模型，我们表明，NPI减少生殖数量从> 3到1到1.6在圣保罗和里约热内卢。对427个新的基因组进行测序，并对具有地理代表性的基因组数据集进行分析，确定了巴西的100多个国际引进病毒。我们估计，大多数（76%）巴西菌株属于2020年2月22日至3月11日期间从欧洲引入的三个分支。在早期流行阶段，我们发现SARS-CoV-2主要在当地和州境内传播。在此之后，尽管航空旅行急剧减少，但我们估计从大城市中心的多次出口与全国航班平均旅行距离增加25%相吻合。这项研究揭示了巴西SARS-CoV-2谱系的流行传播和进化轨迹，并提供了证据表明，目前的干预措施仍不足以控制该国的病毒传播。
Brazil currently has one of the fastest-growing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemics in the world. Because of limited available data, assessments of the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on this virus spread remain challenging. Using a mobility-driven transmission model, we show that NPIs reduced the reproduction number from >3 to 1 to 1.6 in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Sequencing of 427 new genomes and analysis of a geographically representative genomic dataset identified >100 international virus introductions in Brazil. We estimate that most (76%) of the Brazilian strains fell in three clades that were introduced from Europe between 22 February and 11 March 2020. During the early epidemic phase, we found that SARS-CoV-2 spread mostly locally and within state borders. After this period, despite sharp decreases in air travel, we estimated multiple exportations from large urban centers that coincided with a 25% increase in average traveled distances in national flights. This study sheds new light on the epidemic transmission and evolutionary trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 lineages in Brazil and provides evidence that current interventions remain insufficient to keep virus transmission under control in this country.