Are there national risk factors for epidemic cholera? The correlation between socioeconomic and demographic indices and cholera incidence in Latin America
Are there national risk factors for epidemic cholera? The correlation between socioeconomic and demographic indices and cholera incidence in Latin America
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DOI：
10.1093/ije/27.2.330
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发表时间：
1998-04-01
影响因子：
7.7
通讯作者：
Tauxe, RV
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ackers, ML;Quick, RE;Tauxe, RV
背景从1991年到1995年，所有拉丁美洲国家都保持霍乱监测系统，以追踪1991年1月通过秘鲁进入该区域的霍乱疫情。这些数据被用来评估社会经济和人口指标之间的相关性，这些指标可能作为拉丁美洲霍乱流行的国家风险预测指标。（[HDI]基于预期寿命、教育和收入的数值），人均国民生产总值（GNP），结果2001年至2010年，受影响的西部地区共报告霍乱病例1 339 834例，累计发病率为183/10万从1991年到1995年的西半球国家。根据皮尔逊相关系数，婴儿死亡率与霍乱累积发病率的相关性最强。人类发展指数与累计霍乱发病率的负相关性较弱。人均国民生产总值和女性识字率弱，呈负相关，霍乱累计发病率rises.Conclusions婴儿死亡率和可能的人类发展指数可能是有用的间接指标的风险持续传播的霍乱在拉丁美洲国家。特别是在婴儿死亡率低于每1 000活产40人的国家，霍乱累积发病率有所下降。乌拉圭和加勒比地区没有报告霍乱病例，这可能反映了持续传播的风险较低，与社会经济和人口指数一致。霍乱监测仍然是确定个别国家和区域内霍乱趋势的重要工具。
Background From 1991 through 1995, all Latin American countries maintained cholera surveillance systems to track the epidemic that entered the region through Peru in January 1991. These data were used to assess correlations between socioeconomic and demographic indices that might serve as national risk predictors for epidemic cholera in Latin America.Methods Correlations between country-specific cumulative cholera incidence rates from 1991 through 1995 and infant mortality, the Human Development Index ([HDI] a numerical value based on life expectancy, education, and income), gross national product (GNP) per capita, and female literacy were tested using the Pearson correlation coefficient.Results A total of 1 339 834 cholera cases with a cumulative incidence rate of 183 per 100 000 population were reported from affected Western Hemisphere countries from 1991 through 1995. Infant mortality rates were the most strongly correlated with cumulative cholera incidence based on the Pearson correlation coefficient. The HDI had a less strong negative correlation with cumulative cholera incidence. The GNP per capita and female literacy rates were weakly and negatively correlated with cholera cumulative incidence rates.Conclusions Infant mortality and possibly the HDI may be useful indirect indices of the risk of sustained transmission of cholera within a Latin American country. Cumulative cholera incidence is decreased particularly in countries with infant mortality below 40 per 1000 live births. The lack of reported cholera cases in Uruguay and the Caribbean may reflect a low risk for ongoing transmission, consistent with socioeconomic and demographic indices. Cholera surveillance remains an important instrument for determining cholera trends within individual countries and regions.