Forecast and control of epidemics in a globalized world
Forecast and control of epidemics in a globalized world
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0308344101
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发表时间：
2004-10-19
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Geisel, T
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hufnagel, L;Brockmann, D;Geisel, T
严重急性呼吸系统综合症在全世界的迅速蔓延表明，传染病在一个密切相互关联和相互依存的世界上构成了潜在威胁。在这里，我们介绍了一个概率模型，描述了传染病的全球传播，并证明了预测流行病的地理传播确实是可能的。该模型结合了随机局部感染动态的个人与随机运输在全球网络中，考虑到国家和国际民用航空交通。我们对严重急性呼吸系统综合征爆发的模拟与已发表的病例报告惊人地一致。我们表明，高度的可预测性是由网络的强异质性。我们的模型可以用来预测未来传染病在全球范围内的传播，并提前识别濒危地区。不同的控制策略的性能进行了分析，我们的模拟表明，快速和集中的反应是必不可少的，以抑制全球流行病的传播。
The rapid worldwide spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome demonstrated the potential threat an infectious disease poses in a closely interconnected and interdependent world. Here we introduce a probabilistic model that describes the worldwide spread of infectious diseases and demonstrate that a forecast of the geographical spread of epidemics is indeed possible. This model combines a stochastic local infection dynamics among individuals with stochastic transport in a worldwide network, taking into account national and international civil aviation traffic. Our simulations of the severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak are in surprisingly good agreement with published case reports. We show that the high degree of predictability is caused by the strong heterogeneity of the network. Our model can be used to predict the worldwide spread of future infectious diseases and to identify endangered regions in advance. The performance of different control strategies is analyzed, and our simulations show that a quick and focused reaction is essential to inhibiting the global spread of epidemics.